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November 05, 2012

CNN: The Election Is Totally Tied If You Assume D+11, Nearly 60% Higher Democratic Advantage Than In Perfect Storm Year 2008

Tied with D+11??!?!

There's another word for "Tied with D+11."

That word is "Not Tied."

Why Are There Such Huge Democratic Samples? One thing that happens is that pollsters do in fact weight for age, ethnicity, and gender.

Young people don't respond to polls as much. They take the handful of young respondents they get and weight them heavily, to make up for their underrepresentation in the respondent pool. Same with minorities.

But this ends up skewing partisan lean. Which they don't weight for.

One doesn't have to be crazy to assume that young Obama voters are more likely to break this rule and answer poll-calls more often than the average young person. Who might not be voting, or might be voting for Romney, but doesn't expect a Social Credit for doing so and so is less eager to talk to a pollster.


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posted by Ace at 02:33 PM

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