Final Gallup To Show Dead Heat, Advantage Romney, 49-48

Alas, this of course shows a market erosion of Romney's 5 point lead.

But a lead's a lead.

There are no details yet because this is a pre-release leak of the topline results, which were supposed to be released at 1 pm but aren't out yet.

If I had any influence with anyone running ads, I'd cut a quick ad showing Obama jetting off to Vegas after Benghazi, followed by Obama jetting off to Vegas (or whichever city) after his New Jersey photo-op.

And I'd run some footage of the desperation in New Jersey, Lower Manhattan, Queens, and Staten Island.

I guess the question comes down to: If the polls are tied, is it likelier they are understating the liberal Democrat incumbent's support, or that they are understating the conservative Republican challenger's support? I think the latter. There is no social preference to say you support Romney, and quite a bit to pick up the phone and blab that you're Still Not a Racist, which you are proving by voting for the incompetent.

It also comes down to turnout. If you haven't volunteered yet to phone from home or, even better, walk some neighborhoods or do strike lists at the polling places*, there is still time.

It's all going to come down to mobilization and enthusiasm.

Via @benk84.

* Strike Lists, Ben tells me, are just lists of Republican voters who have voted. You collect the list, and relay it back to headquarters. That way, the campaign knows whose door to knock on and ask, "Dude, are you going to get your ass to the polls or not?" It's critical election day intelligence.

posted by Ace at 12:58 PM

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