Why Romney Won, And Why His Victory Should Have Been Obvious Before the Election

Bob Krumm writes a column as a retrospective, from after the election, looking back at all the reasons why Romney won -- and why this outcome should not have taken people by surprise.

It's good.

Like everyone is now saying, someone is going to be shocked on election night. Following the shock, everyone will say, "Of course, it was so obvious."

If Obama wins, the obvious thing will be that he led in most swing-state polls. Of course he won.

But if Romney wins, it will also be an of course situation -- good Lord, he was winning independents by twenty-two (!!!) hot damn points. Good Lord, the fundamentals were always against him -- no president has been reelected with a huge 7.9% unemployment rate (and the real rate is quite a bit higher than that, at 18% or so).

Good Lord, was he really thinking he could overcome these hurdles by ginning up enthusiasm among young voters (who are not in fact enthusiastic) and black voters (who are suffering an outright depression in black employment?)

Oh: He lays out five different scenarios, one of which is "Nate Silver Is right" (Obama wins) and "The RCP average is right" (Obama wins, very narrowly).

Other scenarios feature Romney winning.

posted by Ace at 12:00 PM

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