Intermarkets' Privacy Policy
Support


Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!



Recent Entries
Absent Friends
Bandersnatch 2024
GnuBreed 2024
Captain Hate 2023
moon_over_vermont 2023
westminsterdogshow 2023
Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022
Dave In Texas 2022
Jesse in D.C. 2022
OregonMuse 2022
redc1c4 2021
Tami 2021
Chavez the Hugo 2020
Ibguy 2020
Rickl 2019
Joffen 2014
AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info:
maildrop62 at proton dot me
Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups






















« Bloomberg: Let's Go Forward With The Marathon So People Without Homes, Power, Warmth, or Food Will Have Something To Cheer About | Main | Freakout -- or Pregloating -- Thread »
November 02, 2012

Whoah: 13% of Obama's 2008 Voters Are Defecting to Romney; 3% Undecided

I thought 10% was the maximum he could lose, and still win.

From Hot Air (I thought I discovered this on my own, but clicking back, nope, Hot Air),13%, with 3% more undecided.

So, ultimately, somewhere between 13 and 16% will defect from Obama to Romney.

Obama won relatively big -- more than any Democratic president in recent memory -- but not so big he can afford that level of defection.

70 million voted for Obama in 2008; 60 million voted for McCain.

13% of 70 million is 9.1 million. Subtract that from 70 million and add it to 60 million and you get... Look, I don't do math. I'm just an unfrozen caveman blogger. Your strange world of magic scrawlings confuses me.

And this doesn't even count the independent advantage for Romney!

I can't see how this poll can be true, and yet Obama's tied in the Washington Post's head-to-head.

But again, unfrozen caveman blogger.

Bonus: I figured if Obama lost 10% of his support, Romney would win.

But actually Obama can only afford to lose less than that if his lost support mostly votes for Romney instead of just staying home.

My 10% figure was based (to the extent I base math on anything) on figuring that about 60% of Obama's lost votes would just stay home, and 40% would flip.

But if most of Obama's lost vote is actually voting Romney... well, he can afford fewer lost votes.

Oh Wait: It's wrong to say "And this doesn't even include Romney's advantage with Independents," because, actually, it does include that-- the independents who voted for Obama, but who are now defecting.

But what it doesn't include is much-higher enthusiasm among non-Obama voters in 2008. Many of whom stayed home that year.

Not this year, baby.

Not this year.


digg this
posted by Ace at 04:15 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
[/i][/i][/b][/b]Christopher R Taylor[/i][/i][/b][/b]: "[i]What color was the smoke coming from ND when it ..."

runner: "and biden's administration had no clue this was br ..."

Mel Gibson: "My Korean name is Yool Suk Mi. ..."

Mike Hammer, etc., etc.: "In spite of having seen her mentioned here, off an ..."

rickb223 Gold & Silver Spot Prices [s][/b][/i][/u]: ""[The declaration] is not going to succeed," said ..."

Helena Handbasket: ">>> 10 He's the Greta Thunberg of Popes... Jack ..."

[/i][/b]andycanuck (hovnC)[/s][/u]: "OSINTdefender @sentdefender 32m The South Korean ..."

Doug Dannger: "Actually, just reading the lyrics without thinking ..."

Martini Farmer: "I guess anything to divert attention from the alie ..."

The ARC of History!: "After all, Our Democracy means that supporters of ..."

Splunge: "I usually manage to understand basically what is g ..."

Elric The Blade: "South Korea is a major economic force in the regio ..."

Recent Entries
Search


Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64