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November 02, 2012

Whoah: 13% of Obama's 2008 Voters Are Defecting to Romney; 3% Undecided

I thought 10% was the maximum he could lose, and still win.

From Hot Air (I thought I discovered this on my own, but clicking back, nope, Hot Air),13%, with 3% more undecided.

So, ultimately, somewhere between 13 and 16% will defect from Obama to Romney.

Obama won relatively big -- more than any Democratic president in recent memory -- but not so big he can afford that level of defection.

70 million voted for Obama in 2008; 60 million voted for McCain.

13% of 70 million is 9.1 million. Subtract that from 70 million and add it to 60 million and you get... Look, I don't do math. I'm just an unfrozen caveman blogger. Your strange world of magic scrawlings confuses me.

And this doesn't even count the independent advantage for Romney!

I can't see how this poll can be true, and yet Obama's tied in the Washington Post's head-to-head.

But again, unfrozen caveman blogger.

Bonus: I figured if Obama lost 10% of his support, Romney would win.

But actually Obama can only afford to lose less than that if his lost support mostly votes for Romney instead of just staying home.

My 10% figure was based (to the extent I base math on anything) on figuring that about 60% of Obama's lost votes would just stay home, and 40% would flip.

But if most of Obama's lost vote is actually voting Romney... well, he can afford fewer lost votes.

Oh Wait: It's wrong to say "And this doesn't even include Romney's advantage with Independents," because, actually, it does include that-- the independents who voted for Obama, but who are now defecting.

But what it doesn't include is much-higher enthusiasm among non-Obama voters in 2008. Many of whom stayed home that year.

Not this year, baby.

Not this year.

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posted by Ace at 04:15 PM

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