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November 02, 2012
CAC'S FINAL CALL - 2012 President, House, SenateMeatball always wins. Anyway, here's where I put my reputation on the line, and declare who I think the winner is. Since I don't have a reputation, I'm already coming out ahead. Without further ado, the winner on November 2nd is: ![]() You can thank her for the long hours I had devoted to reporting on Wisconsin, along with my dedication to covering results for election night. On both occasions the task of information collection even with volunteers has been and will be daunting, but she has encouraged me greatly through this whole process. Far from the political junkie I am, she has continued to push and prod, playing devils advocate at every opportunity, and will be assisting me directly on election night when I am making calls. Her ears will get a well-deserved rest. For now.
House: Net +2 R to +1 D. Even in a good year for the Democrats it would be hard to flip control, with the redistricting and costly Presidential race sucking much of the "energ" and money out of the room for them. Ceding an incredible number of state assembly, senate and governors mansions in 2010 can set you back a bit. Senate: Net +1 to +3 R. +3 R and a President Romney would mean the Senate is barely in Republican control. Thanks to self-inflicted wounds, the Republicans must run the table on the tossups: 4 out of Wisconsin, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana (a seat they hold), and Montana; plus acquire their current projected pickups in Nebraska and North Dakota. Holding Massachusetts is now a long shot, on par with flipping Connecticut. President If the results remain tight (75% chance) Most-contested states are New Hampshire, Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin. If the dam breaks (25% chance) Under the blowout scenario, either Virginia and Colorado; or Pennsylvania, ME-2, Michigan and Nevada come into play. The first two are currently Romney's, the last four are Obama's. If these states for either candidate collapse, we are looking more along the lines of a comfortable win. Final: I base this on polling, resource movements, on-the-ground reports, my research into Wisconsin during the recall, and, I'll admit, some bias. It has been a long, rough four years. I am putting my faith in the GOTV effort by Republicans on Election Day. President Obama holding on is a very real possibility and will be stopped only by the drive of Republicans to see him gone. In two days, we will know if that drive was strong enough. Added: When the numbers come in from Ohio, keep the razor blades away for the first two hours. The Secretary of State has announced that the early vote is going up first in reporting, and if we go by polling it will be heavily Obama. Now, if it isn't... | Recent Comments
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Saturday Evening Movie Thread 09/07/2024 [TheJamesMadison]
Hobby Thread - Sept 7, 2024 [TRex] Ace of Spades Pet Thread, September 7 Gardening, Puttering and Adventure Thread, Sept. 7 The "rules-based international order" vs. free speech? The Classical Saturday Morning Coffee Break & Prayer Revival Daily Tech News 7 September 2024 The Bric, The Brac, The Craic & All, Lets Call It An ONT TGIF Cafe The Week In Woke Search
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