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November 02, 2012

CAC'S FINAL CALL - 2012 President, House, Senate

Meatball always wins.

Anyway, here's where I put my reputation on the line, and declare who I think the winner is. Since I don't have a reputation, I'm already coming out ahead.

Without further ado, the winner on November 2nd is:


CACandMRSCAC

Mrs CAC, who doesn't have to listen to me drone on and on about polls for at least six months

You can thank her for the long hours I had devoted to reporting on Wisconsin, along with my dedication to covering results for election night. On both occasions the task of information collection even with volunteers has been and will be daunting, but she has encouraged me greatly through this whole process. Far from the political junkie I am, she has continued to push and prod, playing devils advocate at every opportunity, and will be assisting me directly on election night when I am making calls. Her ears will get a well-deserved rest. For now.


As for the election, here's how I see things.

House: Net +2 R to +1 D. Even in a good year for the Democrats it would be hard to flip control, with the redistricting and costly Presidential race sucking much of the "energ" and money out of the room for them. Ceding an incredible number of state assembly, senate and governors mansions in 2010 can set you back a bit.

Senate: Net +1 to +3 R. +3 R and a President Romney would mean the Senate is barely in Republican control. Thanks to self-inflicted wounds, the Republicans must run the table on the tossups: 4 out of Wisconsin, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana (a seat they hold), and Montana; plus acquire their current projected pickups in Nebraska and North Dakota. Holding Massachusetts is now a long shot, on par with flipping Connecticut.

President
I've been bouncing back and forth between two scenarios, odd because one is three times as likely.

If the results remain tight (75% chance)
Romney nabs between 257-295 in the tight scenario
Obama nabs between 281-243 in the tight scenario

Most-contested states are New Hampshire, Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin.
Romney NH WI IA OH Obama (in terms of favored)

If the dam breaks (25% chance)
Romney nabs between 235-338
Obama nabs between 303-200

Under the blowout scenario, either Virginia and Colorado; or Pennsylvania, ME-2, Michigan and Nevada come into play. The first two are currently Romney's, the last four are Obama's. If these states for either candidate collapse, we are looking more along the lines of a comfortable win.

Final:
I give Romney between 271 and 277 electoral votes to Obama's 261 to 267 electoral votes. Splitting Wisconsin and Ohio in opposite directions, I give the Badger state (barely) to Romney, the Buckeye (barely) to Obama. New Hampshire goes to Romney, Nevada to Obama, and Iowa is a coin toss, in the truest sense of the expression. I couldn't decide on it, so hence the pussed-out range above. Colorado, Virginia, Florida and North Carolina go by wider margins to Romney. Pennsylvania and Michigan go by surprisingly close margins to Obama. Maine's 2nd congressional district goes to Obama by a far closer margin than the rest of the state. Connecticut, Minnesota, and Oregon come in close to their current polling averages.

I base this on polling, resource movements, on-the-ground reports, my research into Wisconsin during the recall, and, I'll admit, some bias. It has been a long, rough four years. I am putting my faith in the GOTV effort by Republicans on Election Day. President Obama holding on is a very real possibility and will be stopped only by the drive of Republicans to see him gone. In two days, we will know if that drive was strong enough.

Added: When the numbers come in from Ohio, keep the razor blades away for the first two hours. The Secretary of State has announced that the early vote is going up first in reporting, and if we go by polling it will be heavily Obama. Now, if it isn't...

digg this
posted by Brandon Finnigan at 06:52 PM

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