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November 01, 2012

Romney Internal Memo: Yeah, We're Winning Iowa

A guy named @talldave7 wants people to understand something: Even if Romney loses a bunch of east/midwest states, he can still win if he wins Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada.*

Only Nevada is a tough slog in that trio.

Just keep that in mind. I actually think we'll win Wisconsin, so we won't have to worry for too deep into the night. But even if that doesn't come to pass, Republicans in Colorado and Nevada can cinch the election for Romney.

So long as we grab Iowa. Which I once thought was a lost cause.

But Iowa is looking good.

An Iowa Republican tells me, “I have seen polling from a third-party group, three congressionals, our state Senate campaigns and state House campaigns — all using different pollsters, and ALL of them have Romney rising, and ALL of them have Romney with a 1 to 2 point lead.”

See the link for more details. The important things are that Republicans are overperforming in the early vote, and have cut Obama's lead in Democrats casting early votes by 75%. Obama still leads, but by a much smaller margin.

And, again, he's cannibalizing certain votes just to keep that padded edge:

• The Obama campaign is panicking, and you can see it in the way they are turning out their most reliable, most likely voters long before Election Day. They are using their highest propensity voters to pad their absentee and early vote numbers. Incredibly, half of Iowa Democrats who have voted in all four of the last four general elections have been made to request absentee ballots or vote early by the Obama campaign.

• The upshot is that Republicans have twice as many reliable, high propensity voters available on Election Day. Republicans already have a natural advantage on Election Day – after all, we invented the 72-Hour Program – which will only be larger in 2012 due to our record-shattering volunteer voter contact effort and the Democrats’ foolish decision to cannibalize their most reliable voters to pad their early voting figures.

* That actually gets him to a 269-269 tie, but then Romney would win in the House.

Plus, if he wins the very-gettable Maine-2 single EV, that would do it.


Pennsylvania Dreaming? Romney's on his way. And it's not just a head fake-- In 2008, Republicans led absentee voting by 2%, in a surprisingly narrow loss in an election Obama destroyed McCain in.

Today, Republicans lead by 18%.

Absentees are a small slice of the voting population, but they are suggestive of determination to vote in the broader population.



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posted by Ace at 05:26 PM

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