Nate Silver, 2009: Let's Face It, Any Candidate Losing Independents "Must Necessarily" Lose the Election

Lot of things have changed since then, though.

Like, for example: Silver's preferred candidate losing the independent vote.

In almost every competitive general election, the party that loses the contest has also lost independent voters. This is because most people (although less so in gubernatorial elections) vote strictly along party lines: the Democrat might be all but guaranteed 80 to 90 percent of the Democratic vote, and the Republican 80 to 90 percent of the Republican vote. Except in certain regions of the country where one or another party encompasses a particularly wide range of ideologies (such as NY-23′s Republicans or vestigial “Solid South” Democrats), it’s independents who swing the vote, since they represent the overwhelming majority of the votes which are up-for-grabs. This must necessarily be the case.

Meanwhile, Pew finds the election tied-- but Romney wins the turnout game, and leads on the most important issues (jobs, deficit).

76% of Republican votes say they are likely to vote this year, up 7 points from September. Democrats who say they are likely to vote is unchanged since September at 62%. Almost 40% of Democrats say they are unlikely to vote or are unregistered. This 14 point edge for the GOP on those likely to vote obviates any chance for the Democrats to again enjoy a large turnout advantage.

And Romney leads Independents by 8, 48-40.

Nate Silver just increased Obama's chances of winning to 1.21 gigawatts. Whatever that means.

posted by Ace at 04:34 PM

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