« Catherine Herridge: This is the Smoking Gun Warning of a Coming Attack in Benghazi | Main | Outrage: Extremist Radio Host Tells Gay Man To Commit Suicide So He Can't Transmit His Vile Choices »
November 01, 2012

A Pair Rasumssen Polls in IA, WI

These aren't all the polls. These are the good polls.

I don't feel completely hackish spotlighting them because I think that pollsters are calling anyone with a pulse a "likely voter," skewing results towards the Democrats. So I think results which show Romney tied or ahead are closer to predictive.

Rasmussen's apparently got a strong likely voter screen, as Bob Krumm wrote (linked in an earlier post).

Wisconsin: 49-49.

Iowa: 49-48, edge Romney.

Baseball Crank offers some more poll analysis at RedState.

My thesis, and that of a good many conservative skeptics of the 538 model, is that these internals are telling an entirely different story than some of the toplines: that Obama is getting clobbered with independent voters, traditionally the largest variable in any election and especially in a presidential election, where both sides will usually have sophisticated, well-funded turnout operations in the field. He’s on track to lose independents by double digits nationally, and the last three candidates to do that were Dukakis, Mondale and Carter in 1980. And he’s not balancing that with any particular crossover advantage (i.e., drawing more crossover Republican voters than Romney is drawing crossover Democratic voters). Similar trends are apparent throughout the state-by-state polls, not in every single poll but in enough of them to show a clear trend all over the battleground states.

If you averaged Obama’s standing in all the internals, you’d capture a profile of a candidate that looks an awful lot like a whole lot of people who have gone down to defeat in the past, and nearly nobody who has won. Under such circumstances, Obama can only win if the electorate features a historically decisive turnout advantage for Democrats – an advantage that none of the historically predictive turnout metrics are seeing, with the sole exception of the poll samples used by some (but not all) pollsters. Thus, Obama’s position in the toplines depends entirely on whether those pollsters are correctly sampling the partisan turnout.

Which they're not.



digg this
posted by Ace at 02:35 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
Acme Explosives [/i]: " ♪ Oh, ho, the mistletoe Hung where you can ..."

RickZ: "The media are as shameless as a five dollar crack ..."

teej: "No shame man. It's early. And mornin' Eromero. ..."

NaCly Dog[/i][/b][/s]: "No work but chores today. And with that, every ..."

teej: "My cousin's mom put together a package for me. Bi ..."

RickZ: "[I]RickZ - I think in the style guide it would be ..."

Skip: "I need to get moving and make mine ..."

NaCly Dog[/i][/b][/s]: "Gem It's never one of the tribes that are not w ..."

RickZ: "[I]So, another day of work work work. Posted b ..."

teej: "That's what I'm drinking Skip. Well, I call it co ..."

Gem: "I was told by my grandma that we had Cherokee heri ..."

Eromero: "So, another day of work work work. At least not ra ..."

Recent Entries
Search


MuNuvians
Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat
Archives
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64