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October 29, 2012

Video: Black Voters Disappointed In the Liberal Democratic Agenda

Interesting video by Rebel Pundit at Breitbart.

The video made me think of the Bradley Effect, which is usually thought of as whites falsely claiming they will vote for a black candidate, thus inflating the black candidate's standing in the polls, as compared to actual votes.

I'm wondering if there isn't a black Bradley Effect in play at the moment.

Blacks support Obama -- they say -- by 92-8. That makes sense, as blacks generally vote for Democrats by 90-10 or, at worse, 88-12. With a black president on the ballot, 92-8 seems pretty likely.

Except... except for the fact of Obama's record, which is generally miserable, and specifically miserable when it comes to soaring black unemployment and rising black poverty rates.

Plus, some progressive social policy adventurism, which is generally unpopular in the black community.

Now, the Bradley Effect posits that there is a "socially preferred" answer and, people being people, they offer the socially preferred answer -- sure, I'm voting for the black candidate -- in higher rates than they actually vote for that candidate. The voting booth makes no judgments, whereas in the usual sort of poll you're on the phone with a human being, who might.

It seems likely to me that within the black community there is an even stronger social preference to stating that one is supporting the first black president.

And so the polls might overstate Obama's support among blacks. Given the very high passions of some blacks about this -- Stacy Dash was vilified with the worst sort of racist and sexualized insults -- it just might be that more blacks are voting for Romney than are willing to say so aloud.

Now blacks only make up 12% of the population, and even a robust Bradley effect would only account for a 5% swing within that 12%; so we're not talking about large numbers of votes here.

Still, in a tight election, in a state like Pennsylvania... who knows.

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posted by Ace at 05:59 PM

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