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October 26, 2012

What Romney Needs to Win Wisconsin

In three charts.
Walker won easily in his recall not thanks to depressed Democrats in Madison or Milwaukee but by amped support in the Milwaukee suburbs, the Green Bay markets, and, importantly, the "rest of" the state. Places like NW Wisconsin (Duluth Metropolitan Area) W Wisconsin (part of the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area) and Central Wisconsin. These "other parts" get ignored but are critical for a Republican and can make a serious difference.

Evidence below the fold, VERY big evidence.

[Update - Andy: Click the images to embiggen]


Snapshots of two different crosstabs by region.

Crosstab by region for Scott Walker-Tom Barrett in Recall fight, Marquette Law Poll May 26 2012:

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Crosstab by region for Mitt Romney-President Barack Obama, Marquette Law Poll October 17 2012:

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

A very obvious difference in the "rest of" territory, confirmed when you compare Romney's narrow los by .5% in this to Thompson's equally razor-thin .3% "win" in the same poll:

Crosstab by region for Tommy Thompson-Tammy Baldwin, Marquette Law Poll October 17 2012:

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

While this may seem like a subtle difference, closing the gap by another 4 points while performing roughly the same in all other regions flips a tight race in the Republicans' favor.

Winning the region outright, like Walker managed to do? President Romney. This is why ads are going up in Minnesota, and also why Governor Romney must push visits and efforts in the often-neglected western and central regions of the state. Well, if he wants to win, that is. But hey, what do I know. Not like I covered the Badger state during the recall.

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posted by CAC at 07:17 PM

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