Breaking: A Substantively Important Story To Which I Will Add Value Through Cogent Analysis and Clear Writing

Just kidding, it's a poll!

Romney goes out ahead of Obama, 49-48, in the WaPo/ABCNews poll, the first time he has led in this poll since August 25th.

This poll is scary-unvarying, by the way. Over the course of three months Obama has bounced between 51 and 49, and Romney has bounced from about 47 to 49. It's so unvarying that if the guy doing it didn't have a good reputation, I'd say it's evidence of shenanigans. (Every experiment, after all, has some experimental error.)

Underscoring Obama’s challenges two weeks before Election Day, his job approval rating now stands at 49 percent among likely voters, its lowest since late September (48 percent) and trouble for him to the extent that the election is a referendum on his performance. Among previous incumbents, George W. Bush dipped to 50 percent among likely voters – but not lower – in the fall of his successful re-election campaign.

Moreover, likely voters now divide by 50-45 percent, Romney-Obama, in whom they trust to do a better job handling the economy. The 5-point gap, while not statistically significant, is its widest, again, since Aug. 25.

Obama wins on empathy, 51-44. Another interesting bit is that while Democratic enthusiasm is pretty high, it's still three points below what it was in 2008 (62% now, 65% then). But Republican enthusiasm is also at 62% -- but it was at 38% in 2008.

Still, according to this poll we don't have an advantage on this count. Which means it's up to people to translate mere enthusiasm into positive action, as @benk84 advises.

posted by Ace at 06:06 PM

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