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October 23, 2012

Gallup: 51-46
Rasmussen National: 50-46
Rasmussen Swing States: 50-45
ARG New Hampshire: 49-47

Gallup's numbers were late today. When they finally posted, Obama gained a point to 46%; Romney's lead shrunk from 6 to 5. No change in registered voters from yesterday (48-47 Romney).

Here's an important finding, from @conartcritic. In a poll conducted Oct. 1st through 21st, Gallup found the party affiliation of the country very nearly evenly split:


Gallup survey of party affiliation pref for 1-21 Oct: Dem 34.3% GOP 34.1% Ind 31.6%

CAC's conclusion: It's not D+7, or 6, or 5, or 4, or 3, or 2, or even 1 anymore. It's D+0. It's all even.

Meanwhile, ARG posted a New Hampshire poll showing Romney up by two points.

Rasmussen: Romney 50, Obama 46 (see update at post's end).

Rasmussen Swing States Only: Romney 50, Obama 45.

This is now the third time Romney has hit the 50% mark in the combined swing states in the past four days and is the biggest lead either candidate has held in nearly three weeks.

Fact Check: Romney was Pants On Fire wrong about the 47%. It's more like 45%.

Nate Silver just emailed to say Obama's odds of winning improved to 640%, which means that, in addition to winning the election, Obama now has a good shot of being crowned King of the Third French Empire and the next Celebrity Apprentice.

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posted by Ace at 01:37 PM

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