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October 23, 2012

Democratic Polling Firm PPP: Romney 49, Obama 47

A few notable things here beyond that.

Obama's favorable/unfavorable is underwater, 47-49. Romney's is above water and ahead of Obama's: 50/45. With women he's 47/47. Obama's well underwater with men, though, 41-55.

I am a convert to believing favorability might be the single most important number in a poll. I suppose it's not as important as the head-to-head. But it's close.

Obama's job approval is 45/51.

Now, among Independents: Mitt Romney has a fav/unfav 50/45. Obama's fav/unfav among independents is way underwater, at 42/51.

And Romney leads in independents, 50-41.

The only age group Obama leads with is 18-29, and that's not even by 2008 level margins. Just 51-38. So a majority have decided to support him-- barely. Who knows where the 10% undecided will go.

So, it's a pretty good poll for Romney. Not only is he ahead, but he seems to have more upside. If you think your favorability sets your upper bound of support -- people who favor you might support you; if they have an unfavorable impression of you, they almost certainly won't -- then Obama seems to be butting up near his maximum level of support, while Romney could still grow a few points.

PPP holds out hope that the debate, which they think Obama won, will change things. I don't see that happening. Quite the opposite. The big card Biden repeatedly played on Ryan -- often as a buffoonish nonsequitor -- was, "What, so you want to go to war with everyone?"

I'm pretty sure Romney successfully presented himself as a non-Dr. Strangelove candidate.

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posted by Ace at 10:50 AM

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