18% of Iowans have voted

Not 34%, 18%. Which means the Marist finding (just like the Ohio one) is horseshit.

18%. Take your eyeballs over to the Secretary of States' website which shows a total of 284,000 in. Unless 2012 turnout is going to crash to unbelievable levels (was 1.5 million in 08, just under that in 04), that is 18%.

Demographic breakdown:
Democrats have a 54,000 vote edge, 49.4% to R's 30.3%, meaning Obama must be running better than 7/8ths of the Independent vote to approach your "35 point margin". In fact, the Democratic "advantage" so far matches the 2004 "advantage", a race they lost by over 10,000 votes.

Facts are a shitty thing when you are desperately clinging to the narrative.
For those fact-checkers out there, go ahead and look at the numbers reported by the Secretary of State. I'm not pulling stats out of my butt like, obviously, Marist. That statistic of "1/3 in and its 2/3 Obama !!!" will be repeated ad naseum as truth, when it is bogus and easily disproven. Let's see how many actually bother to fact-check it. I'm not holding my breath.

posted by CAC at 06:50 PM

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