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October 11, 2012

Florida Media Poll: Romney 51, Obama 44

Winning Hispanics 46-44?

The survey conducted this week found 51 percent of likely Florida voters supporting Romney, 44 percent backing Obama and 4 percent undecided. That's a major shift from a month ago when the same poll showed Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent — and a direct result of what Obama himself called a "bad night" at the first debate.

The debate prompted 5 percent of previously undecided voters and 2 percent of Obama backers to move to Romney. Another 2 percent of Obama supporters said they are now undecided because of the debate.

Okay, Florida is starting to look okay. But Florida has always been among the easiest of the states we need to flip. Hopefully this poll will be confirmed by others.

Virginia and Ohio, Virginia and Ohio.

Via @fixaaron and @johnekdahl

W.R. Meade: It's Not About Ideology. From Meade, excerpting "The Monkey Cage" blog.

The Monkey Cage cites a plot from YouGov, in which people note their own ideological leanings, and their perception of Romney's and Obama's leanings. Turns out, people rate themselves (in aggregate) closer to Romney than Obama.

So:

Romney may not have needed this pivot to the center anyway. Even though he is perceived as more conservative than the average voter—and increasingly so—he is still closer to the average voter than is Obama. This belies the notion that Romney’s conservative positions in the primary have damaged him in the general election. Romney’s struggles up until his debate win were not about ideology. And if this debate has a long-term effect on the race, it may not involve making voters see him as more moderate. In fact, although Romney’s embrace of conservatism has attracted more commentary, Obama’s perceived liberalism could prove the bigger liability in November.

Meade concludes:

Romney didn’t shift ideologically; he passed a threshold test [of gravitas and Presidential mien.]

Yeah, I forget who was saying this, but someone was making the case that one of these guys, Ryan or Romney, finally has to brand Obama as a Big-L Liberal.


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