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October 09, 2012

EXCLUSIVE: New Poll Shows Sean Bielat Within Striking Distance Of Joe Kennedy III In MA-4
HALF of Kennedy's Current Support Is Up For Grabs

The following information is, as far as I know, exclusive to the HQ and is based on communications with sources inside the Bielat campaign.

The headlines show Kennedy leading Bielat in the polls with ~55% of the vote, but ... and this is a big but ... new polling data from last week shows that lead to be as soft as little Joe Kennedy's hands that have never done an honest day's work in their life.

This is far different than Barney Frank's base of support that proved to be solid all the way through the 2010 race, and there has been a net 12% swing in support to Bielat since candidates announced early this year.

According to campaign sources, 11% of voters in the district, including 1 in 3 Elizabeth Warren voters, remain undecided. And of poll respondents who say they plan to vote for Kennedy, only 50% say that decision is definite compared to ~85% for Warren (and a like number for Brown).

This certainly squares with what I'm seeing anecdotally. Driving around the district, you see many more Bielat yard signs than Kennedy yard signs, but there are more Warren and Brown signs than Halloween pumpkins. The intensity just isn't there for Kennedy as this poll bears out.

This weekend I even drove past a house with Brown and Obama/Biden signs in their yard. I don't understand how you reach this decision myself, but this is exactly the kind of swing voter in the district that could also pull the lever for Bielat.

Even better, while he has instant name recognition, only 5% of Kennedy's voters say the Kennedy name is why they're voting for him compared to 10% of Bielat's voters who answered "not a Kennedy" as to the reason why. It seems the Kennedy name just doesn't carry quite the cachet it once did here in the Bay State.

Bottom line: this race is winnable and is trending in our direction.

More to follow ...






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