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October 02, 2012

NBC/WSJ Poll: Obama Lead Down To Basically Nothing, 49-46

Praise the Saints I can finally talk about polls again.

Do you know how hard it is on Poor Me if I actually have to work instead of just putting up poll posts?

It'd break your heart if you knew. I spare you these pains of mine, because I bear my grim burdens alone, with silent grace.

Obama edges Romney by three points among likely voters, 49 percent to 46 percent, which is within the survey’s margin of error. Obama’s lead was five points, 50 percent to 45 percent, in the NBC/WSJ poll released two weeks ago, following the political conventions.

It's margin of error.

Just To Point Something Out Here... Check Question 7 in the questionnaire. (You have to go to my link then click on their link; I'm having a problem copying the link to the PDF.) As far as I can tell, this is the only part of it that serves as a Likely Voter Screen. All it asks is for people to rate their interest in the election, from 1-10.

Now, Gallup's Likely Voter Screen (which isn't being used yet) is more involved. It asks if people voted last time and the time before that; if they know where their local polling place is; and then it asks about interest in the election and self-rated likelihood of voting.

Another Voter Screen question I've seen is this: "Did you plan on voting in the the last election, but found that something came up which prevented you from voting?" That question is worded like that, I believe, to provide the respondent with an excuse for not voting, to lessen the social pressure to just say "Yes I vote in each and every election just like a good civic-minded citizen." It's trying to get the truth by giving them an out.

All this one asks is self-rated interest in the election -- and people lie about things like this. Few wish to say "I'm not civic minded."

All these guys seem to do is to ask people if, in their own estimation, they are well-informed and dutiful citizens.


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posted by Ace at 06:44 PM

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