Flashback, September 14, 2000: "Why Bush Is Toast"

Via @justkarl. Something to keep in mind.

Since Labor Day, the media have released about 20 polls on the presidential race. Three show a dead heat, one shows George W. Bush leading by a single percentage point, and the rest show Al Gore leading by one to 10 points. In the latest polls, Gore leads by an average of five points. It's fashionable at this stage to caution that "anything can happen," that Bush is "retooling," and that the numbers can turn in Bush's favor just as easily as they turned against him. But they can't. The numbers are moving toward Gore because fundamental dynamics tilt the election in his favor. The only question has been how far those dynamics would carry him. Now that he has passed Bush, the race is over.

Yes, in principle, Bush could win. The stock market could crash. Gore could be caught shagging an intern. Bush could electrify the country with the greatest performance in the history of presidential debates. But barring such a grossly unlikely event, there is no reason to think Bush will recover. Ultimately, reasons drive elections. For months, pundits yapped about Bush's lead in the polls without scrutinizing the basis of that lead. Now they're doing the same to Gore. But look closely at the trends beneath the horse-race numbers, and you'll realize why it's practically impossible to turn those numbers around. Gore doesn't just have the lead. On each underlying factor, he has the upside as well.

It should be noted the "underlying factors" do not presage well for Old Man Obama this time around.

There are four possible responses to being behind in polls; we should be at stage 1. The rest are unwarranted, at least at the moment.

Stage 1. Concern

Stage 2. Great concern

Stage 3. Panic

Stage 4. Spazzing out with full, 100% Retard Strength, going at people like a whirlwind of elbows and teeth.

So we're behind. We've been behind before.

CNN, Meanwhile... has Obama over 50%, at 52%, but I've now been told by two people that if you subtract out the number of Democrats and Republicans they cop to (Democrats +5%), it turns out they only contacted 37 independents.

Not 37%. 37 total.

Among those 37, Romney's up 54-40. But then again: 37 of them.

posted by Ace at 06:06 PM

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