CORRECTED PPP Numbers for Missouri

Since PPP decided it can't help itself, I've done you all a service.
I went through their ridiculous R+9 sample and ONLY changed the D/R/I proportions to match previous elections, and an even turnout.
With R+9, PPP's headline screams Akin up by 1. It is an obvious, sick ploy to get this delusional Bio101 flunkie to stay in and cost us a seat.

Here are the real numbers:
If turnout in November matches 2008 (it won't):
McCaskill 49.25% Akin 39% (this is a D+6 turnout model)

If turnout in November is even, an incredible feat for the GOP considering heavy turnout in St Louis and Kansas City during an election year:
McCaskill 47% Akin 40%.

If turnout in November matches the best we have ever seen in the state (R+3 during 2010):
McCaskill 45% Akin 41%.

McCaskill is a dead duck if we dump Akin. The other candidates from the primary were crushing her up and down. To trail her by four in a best-case scenario is inexcusable at this point.

The fact that PPP had to triple the best R margin ever just to get Akin over McCaskill screams agenda polling, but they will never admit to that, so I'm calling them out on it, and it's time for you to spread the word. PPP's "Akin still leads" poll is garbage, the approval rating for Akin with this huge R spread is a God-awful 24%, and McCaskill hasn't cut one rape ad yet.

Akin.
Must.
Go.

posted by CAC at 11:15 AM

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