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August 15, 2012

History Is Against Obama Winning A Second Term

I'm not much for "past is prelude" but if you're looking for another sign of hope consider this....no President, starting with FDR* has failed to win more electoral votes in their second election than they did their first.

2ndtermevs.JPG

For all the talk about Romney having to "expand" his map, the reality is unlike successful incumbents, Obama's map is shrinking.

(Shameless plug: You can do the electoral collage math yourself with the phone app my business partner and I developed. Right now we have Android and Kindle Fire versions.)

There's simply no red state from 2008 that anyone thinks Obama is going to be competitive in, let alone win. He might still hang on to win but history, the economy, and the state of the country are against it.


*Thanks to @projectiondesk for pointing out that FDR qualifies for this trend if you discount his historically anomalous third and fourth terms. Not since Woodrow Wilson, almost 100 years ago, has an incumbent won reelection while losing Electoral College votes.

Also, I'd be remiss if I didn't point to CAC's rules for flipping control of the White House.


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posted by DrewM. at 09:09 AM

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