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July 30, 2012

Hey, Remember When I Kept Saying This Would Happen?

Gabe posted this earlier (and hello again, everyone), but I wanted to post it again, to say "See look how smart I am" and also because I don't know what's actually new news at this point. I haven't followed the news and in fact have barely been on the current events section of the internet.

Mitt Romney holds thin advantages over President Obama on leadership, personal values and honesty, according to a new poll for The Hill.

...

It found 48 percent of voters consider Romney the stronger leader, compared to 44 percent who favored Obama.

Similarly, 47 percent of likely voters also said Romney most shares their values while 44 percent picked Obama.

When asked which candidate voters considered more honest and trustworthy, 46 percent said Romney and 44 percent said Obama — a result within the poll’s 3 percentage point margin of error.

...

Obama has generally fared better than Romney throughout the campaign in polls assessing the candidates’ personal qualities.

In June, a USA Today/Gallup poll found 60 percent of voters considered Obama honest and trustworthy, compared to 50 percent for Romney. The Gallup survey also showed more people believed Obama shared their values (53 percent) than Romney (45 percent).

Obama’s biggest personal strength has been likability.

Anyway, for the past month I've written several times that when voters make their decision -- whether they announce it or still claim to be "waiting for all the facts" -- they begin saying the candidate they favor is better in all ways, even ones you wouldn't expect. Like when Obama was beating McCain, the public was saying Obama would be better on the deficit (!), terrorism (!!), and even taxes (!!!).

Consistent with the main line of my argument -- the election is almost over -- the public does seem to be breaking to Romney now on all these secondary questions. He's better for this, he's better at that.

Compare to this report from July 23rd:

Two-thirds of likely voters say the weak economy is Washington’s fault, and more blame President Obama than anybody else, according to a new poll for The Hill.

It found that 66 percent believe paltry job growth and slow economic recovery is the result of bad policy. Thirty-four percent say Obama is the most to blame, followed by 23 percent who say Congress is the culprit. Twenty percent point the finger at Wall Street, and 18 percent cite former President George W. Bush.

I imagine the psychology is buyer's optimism-- when you research a new HDTV for three months and just decide to buy one already, you maybe convince yourself it's better (or at least pretty good) even in the few areas that it was bothering you.

I thought this would happen, and it is happening, which makes me firmer in my belief that the texture of the election campaign will make Romney the favorite. Barring any black swan that hurts Romney (after giving that kid the Gay Haircut, Romney blew him!) or helps Obama, his position will only strengthen, out to a persistent 5-8 point lead in the polls.


I was going to link the actual video, but it turns out the video is much dirtier than I remembered (content warning). (Actually, I didn't remember it at all.)

It was bothering me why this video was so dirty -- after all, the Cars were not known for being very dirty, apart from this silly confection about a long anticipated climax -- so I looked it up. The video was directed by Andy Warhol, and the uncensored version has any number of boobies. And when I say "any number," I mean eight.

I guess that's why I never saw it -- they didn't broadcast this, maybe.

I have now spent 40 minutes longer looking into the history of the Hello Again video than I planned, so I'll stop now.

digg this
posted by Ace at 08:12 AM

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