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July 25, 2012

To Answer Drew's Post Yesterday About Michigan

Per Mitchell Research, you're damn right it's in play.

Last poll- Obama by 1.
This one? Romney by 1.
Two firms in a row showing more movement to Romney (Rasmussen went from O+8 to O+6 yesterday). For what it's worth, Mitchell has the largest sample size of Michigan polls released this week, 825 Likely versus 500 for Rasmussen, and with it a smaller margin of error.

Marist (Obama+4), Epic-MRA (Romney+1), WAA (Romney+2) and a host of other firms who found Obama-Romney within MOE either way a few weeks back have yet to release new numbers. When they do they will either confirm this trend or...ok...

Before anyone points out the giggle-inducing PPP release today, remember Wisconsin when they came in sixth for accuracy. They have a long, long way to go before I take their independent polling seriously (like when they switch over to a likely voter model in September). When they are paid (ex- for DailyKos), they sober up. Now? Funnytime at the crazy bar. Give em traffic if you like, but a 14-pt outliner like the one they are smarming about? No linky today. Also amusing- this time in 2008 they had no problem using likely voter models for polling. I wonder why they are holding out this go-around...

posted by CAC at 12:31 PM

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This one? Romney by 1. Two firms in a row showing more movement to Romney (Rasmussen went from O+8 to O+6 yesterday). For what it's worth, Mitchell has the largest sample size of Michigan polls released this week, 825 Likely versus 500 for Rasmussen, and with it a smaller margin of error. Marist (Obama+4), Epic-MRA (Romney+1), WAA (Romney+2) and a host of other firms who found Obama-Romney within MOE either way a few weeks back have yet to release new numbers. When they do they will either confirm this trend or...ok... Before anyone points out the giggle-inducing PPP release today, remember Wisconsin when they came in sixth for accuracy. They have a long, long way to go before I take their independent polling seriously (like when they switch over to a likely voter model in September). When they are paid (ex- for DailyKos), they sober up. Now? Funnytime at the crazy bar. Give em traffic if you like, but a 14-pt outliner like the one they are smarming about? No linky today. Also amusing- this time in 2008 they had no problem using likely voter models for polling. I wonder why they are holding out this go-around... posted by CAC at 12:31 PM \| Access Comments <script language="javascript" src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/addyn/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=700;cookie=info;target=_blank;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]"></script><noscript><a href="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adlink/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" target="_blank"><img src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adserv/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" border="0" width="300" height="250"></a></noscript>	Recent Comments Seems Legit: "How odd, I thought everyone understood that electr ..." rickb223 Gold & Silver Spot Prices [s][/b][/i][/u]: "You’d think they would’ve come up with ..." Commissar of Plenty and Lysenkoism in Solidarity with the Struggle : "MiG-29 has two sets of intakes Bonus hole. ..." 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