Gallup: Obama, Romney Tied at 46 Each

I'm noting this because I said it would happen. As part of the long-anticipated "Obama Comeback" narrative, media noted that Obama had opened up a 48-44 lead on Romney, in Gallup surveys. I said, because I am Wise In Such Things, it was mostly noise, and Gallup had these two trading a few points back and forth for months, with the main persistent finding being a tie.

With registered voters.

The new ABCNews/Washington Post poll also shows it as a tie, at 47-47, with registered voters, and assuming its partisan splits hold for the election, as Captain Ed notes. So, as long as Obama overperforms his 2008 +7 D split (and his +0 D 2010 split), and gets a +9 D voting sample, and registered voters do not skew Democratic as compared to actual voters, then it's a tie.

posted by Ace at 01:56 PM

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