ę Shock: Astroturfed "Threat" Left at Patterico | Main | Actual Time Magazine Headline: "One-Note Mitt: Is Romney Too Focused On The Economy?" Ľ
June 26, 2012

S&P: Now a 20% Chance of Double-Dip

Only 20%? They say they still stick to their prediction that a slow, weak recovery is the most likely scenario.

Meanwhile, at Gallup and Rasmussen, consumer confidence falls.

Let me admit to my own cocooning: I was surprised when I saw those graphs that the consumer confidence numbers were as high as they were. Still in negative territory, but not nearly as negative as they'd been in 2011. And, until recently, you can see the trendline marching upwards, if slowly.

That's a good example of me blinding myself to contrary data points. I have been frustrated in my failure to understand why Obama's approval ratings were as high as they were; well, part of that frustration is self-inflicted. I didn't buy the "recovery" meme, but I also blinded myself to the fact that most of the country seemed to buy it. At least, they bought it some.

On the other hand, my cocooning is at least not unique. Analysts and media keep having to note "unexpected" drops in hiring and growth because they never seemed to take into account the significant downside risks in this false recovery, either.

I'll try to keep that in mind -- about cocooning myself -- but, honestly, I'll probably forget before the next post.

And all that said -- public opinion and actual economic data seem to be falling to the level of my cocoon.

BTW: Britain's been in a double-dip since the beginning of the year. Europe as a whole is as well.

Flashback:

AmericaIsBack

And... Well, people are catching up to me, anyway. Charlie Cook says this is going to be a hard election for Obama to win.

Itís also pretty clear that, despite a ray of sunshine earlier this year, the economy isnít looking as bright today as it did in February and March. The global economic picture is depressing, with even the previously shining lights such as China, India, and Brazil experiencing slowdowns. The eurozone is in a recession that looks more deep than mild, and its sovereign-debt and banking crises are getting worse, not better. Domestically, there is cause for far more concern than would have been warranted at the beginning of this year. While the painful deleveraging process always dictated a slow recovery, economists are scrambling to revise their forecasts of economic growth to reflect the downward trend. The most frequently quoted number for gross domestic product is now 2 percent growth. Not that long ago, some forecasts had approached 3 percent. Unemployment is not expected to improve between now and the election. No incumbent wants to see an unemployment rate at 8 percent or higher. Franklin D. Roosevelt was the last to survive it in the Oval Office.

Of course, the economy was in a recession when Obama took the oath of office and worsened before he could possibly have done anything to turn it around. But itís equally true that every month a president is in office, he takes on a little more ownership of the situation he inherited, whatever it is. By the time the incumbent gets four years in, if things are getting better, he will get credit or the blame, deserved or not. Reminders that it all went to hell on a different president and partyís watch doesnít change that.

If the economy is much different in October and November than now, itís more likely to be worse than better....

We are past the point where Obama can win a referendum election, regardless of whether it is on him or the economy.

His prescription for Obama is to go negative and poison Romney's image. It's the only play left to him.


digg this
posted by Ace at 02:40 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
Your Decidedly Devious Uncle Palpatine, Booking Agent, Aero Pinochet: "Dear Santa - This year, I've been very good, for s ..."

Bear with Assymetrical Balls: "I still have my Charlie Brown Christmas LP from wh ..."

Miklos, not from Fusion anything: "Oh Lord. Now Palp has another fundraising oppor ..."

Cicero (@cicero): "We have all these eucalyptus trees in CA through t ..."

JAS: "OK shitheads. Here is the story of eucalyptus in ..."

no good deed : "I like the "they say" it translates to Caucasian. ..."

logprof: "Wow, a Herman Cain sighting. ..."

Northernlurker : "Stop with the mariaci music. ..."

ALH: "The news showed film of the California wild fires. ..."

Blanco Basura - It's OK, I'm with the banned: "[i]Middlin'. How are you?[/i]Sick, but better the ..."

Cicero (@cicero): "Is this the ONT? Like Shep Smith's sexuality, the ..."

logprof: "Mark Knopfler himself has self edited that song. S ..."

Recent Entries
Search


MuNuvians
Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat
Archives
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64