Sponsored Content
« Former CBSNews Writer/Producer: That's It For Me, I Can No Longer Claim The Media Has Good Motives For Its "Errors" | Main | Aaron Walker Victorious In Court This Morning; SWATted By Evening »
June 25, 2012

A New Tea Leaf For Ace: Roberts Writing Majority ObamaCare Decision And Ginsburg Writing Dissent?

Ace said he wanted a better ObamaCare tea leaf than "Scalia is cranky because he lost ObamaCare", well, via Brian Faughnan here's is a better (in every way) tea leaf.

Chief Justice John Roberts is expected to author the majority ruling in the health case — because of its significance and because Justice Anthony Kennedy authored the Arizona opinion, which was the second most controversial case of the term. Plus, neither he nor Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg have published any opinions since May 24. During that time, every other justice has published at least two majority opinions.

If Roberts does author the opinion, he’s at the top of the seniority list, so health care could be the last of the three cases released on Thursday.

That makes a lot of sense. Roberts is likely to be writing the majority opinion no matter which way the decision goes but there's no way Ginsburg is in the "overturn camp" (if she were, Roberts would go with that majority). Ginsburg is the senior liberal justice so if it's a 5-4 overturn ruling, she would have first chance to write the dissent (the senior justice on each side has 'dibs' on writing for their camp) so this makes a lot of sense.

I didn't put any stock in the "Scalia is cranky because of ObamaCare" theory because it's just lame. Scalia has long championed the "sovereign state" theory that no one really buys (Thomas dissented but for different reasons and Alito was partially in agreement with the majority and partially in dissent but for very different reasons than either Scalia or Thomas). That alone would make Scalia cranky.

The worst part of Scalia Arizona dissent (aside from an agreement I found unpersuasive) was it wasn't any fun. Read his dissent in Lawrence v. Texas to see how biting he can be. Today he was just running around in circles that made no sense. Also his argument against "field preemption" might be sound but it seems to contradict his awful opinion in Raich.

FWIW, I found Alito's opinion to be the most persuasive. The whole set of opinions (pdf) isn't that long (relatively speaking) and worth reading.

But... [ace]: I was just asking Drew this by email: What if Kennedy flipped to the liberals, and then permitted Ginsberg to write the majority opinion (because he's embarrassed of it, and she's gung-ho), and Roberts is actually writing the dissent?

Drew again: My response to Ace was, Kennedy is an attention whore. No way he passes on the chance to write THE decision of the term and more. As for the notion that Kennedy is "embarrassed" by his position...I don't see how the guy who wrote the much laughed at "mystery of life" passage in Casey v. Planned Parenthood is embarrassed by anything.

It's all guess work at this point but hey, we've got 2 1/2 days to kill.

digg this
posted by DrewM. at 07:07 PM

| Access Comments

Recent Comments
BignJames: "I just moved back to SC from Wyoming. Forgot that ..."

Piper : "@Ace from the bottom of my heart, thank you for th ..."

screaming in digital: "About 10 miles back you left a granny still standi ..."

screaming in digital: "I left SC to go to western NY to help a friend cle ..."

bill in arkansas, not gonna comply with nuttin, waiting for the 0300 knock on the door : "214 Tonypete, are you in Cleveland for the wife's ..."

Fen: "Wow. That awkward moment when you think you're cle ..."

Diogenes: "Spring was 5:24 EDT....we missed it. Posted by: B ..."

Javems: " I tell ya it was a hell of a show. Posted by: ..."

nurse ratched : "My older brother put 3 Goody powders together and ..."

Tonypete: "Snorted them up his nose and went to choke-puking ..."

BignJames: "Waiting for Spring and getting impatient. You? P ..."

Chatterbox Mouse: "Springtime? I left SC to go to western NY to he ..."

Recent Entries

Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64