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June 22, 2012

#AOSHQDD : Interim Presidential Race Forecast, Part Three

Post-Wisconsin I've been working with JohnE on expanding the Decision Desk to 50-state coverage. In the meantime, I've kept my eye on polling data and will continue to reveal the current projection of the Presidential race.

Today, we introduce the favored states, those which will go to their respective party unless the "leaning" states begin to cascade in one direction or the other.

With this category added, Romney leads 206 to Obama's 194 electoral votes, as Romney gains no states but Obama gains Washington, Minnesota, and Maine. How do the remaining states fall? The swing states (leaners and tossups) will be pinned down in the final thread.

Map below the fold.


obamaromneyfavoredstates

Dark red/blue states are the solids we showed in the kickoff thread, bright red/blue states are the likely, and cerulean blue /bright pink are the "favored" states introduced in this thread and map.

Like in the previous threads, if you are available to cover on election night in November (as part of an expanded project a la what we did with Wisconsin), contact me via twitter email, as it would be easier to keep addys around: theoneandonlyfinn at gmail.com. Mention your state. Also if you volunteered in the last thread shoot me a message to get the list growing. If you live in a solid/likely state, you can still contribute with senate or house races, but you will probably be assigned counties in the closest swing state to you to help report.

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posted by CAC at 05:51 PM

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