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June 21, 2012

#AOSHQDD : Interim Presidential Race Forecast, Part Two

Post-Wisconsin I've been working with JohnE on expanding the Decision Desk to 50-state coverage. In the meantime, I've kept my eye on polling data and will continue to reveal the current projection of the Presidential race.

Today, we introduce the likely states, those which will go to the indicated party with the exception of a 1988/1980/1964 landslide.

With this category added, Romney leads 206 to Obama's 168 electoral votes, a total of 374 EV's not contested in the race in any reasonable scenario. How do the remaining states fall? I'll roll those subsequent maps out in coming threads.

Map below the fold.


OBAMAROMNEYLIKELYSTATES

Dark red/blue states are the solids we showed in the kickoff thread, bright red/blue states are the likely, just for clarity.

In case it isn't self explanatory, President Obama predicably picks up Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Romney gains Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri and Arizona. The biggest change in status amongst these states over the last decade is with Missouri and New Mexico- swing states of yesteryear, the former a bellweather, that have drifted rather obviously into a particular camp.

Like in the previous thread, if you are available to cover on election night in November (as part of an expanded project a la what we did with Wisconsin), contact me via twitter email, as it would be easier to keep addys around: theoneandonlyfinn at gmail.com. Mention your state. Also if you volunteered in the last thread shoot me a message to get the list growing. If you live in a solid/likely state, you can still contribute with senate or house races, but you will probably be assigned counties in the closest swing state to you to help report.

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posted by CAC at 03:18 PM

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