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June 20, 2012

Fed Once Again Revises Growth Estimates, Downwards, Ever Downwards

And they're still highballing it. From the NYT:

Fed officials said they now expected the economy to expand between 1.9 percent and 2.4 percent this year, down from an April forecast of 2.4 percent to 2.9 percent.

The economic forecast, released separately, reflected reduced prospects for 2013 as well. The Fed estimated growth of between 2.2 percent and 2.8 percent, down from 2.7 percent and 3.1 percent in the April forecast.

Why do I say they're highballing it? Well, for one thing, they've consistently highballed it. Q1's initial reading came in at 2.2%, later revised down to 1.9%.

Now, the first quarter's GDP annualized growth rate was 1.9%, and Q2 seems to be falling even further.

So, Q3 and Q4 would have to come in at something like 3% to pull the average for the year up to "1.9% to 2.4%."

Does it seem likely? Is anyone feeling a sudden surge coming in the economy?

I don't. Europe is about to tank, for one thing. And our own "recovery" was weak, at best, even before any pulldown from the European toilet-swirl.


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posted by Ace at 05:10 PM

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