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June 12, 2012

Weak Economy Sours Independents On Obama, And Yet He Still Leads

Five point lead for Obama, but..

Most troubling for Obama is that he trails his GOP rival 36%-43% among independent voters, with 12% undecided.

The large number of undecided voters should greatly concern the Obama campaign. Such voters are more likely to break for the challenger rather than the incumbent, notes Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducted the poll.

He also said Obama's biggest problem is unemployment.

"If you look at the number of households with at least one person looking for employment, it's 23%," he said. "That translates into 30 million people looking for work. It's something that the mainstream media often miss."

Among independents, 29% are in a household with at least one person looking for employment.

The poll was conducted before the "doing fine" gaffe. Another nugget is that 65% aren't satisfied with the direction of the country.

I keep saying this, but: Polls are predictive, but earlier indicators are facts on the ground, which in turn will predict the polls.

Yes, Romney has not yet made the sale. The block of undecideds doesn't like him and doesn't support him.

But they also do not like Obama -- and are nearly as down on him as actual Romney supporters.

The key is getting these people to the polls, by hook or by crook. Most of them will vote against Obama, even if they're not really voting for Romney.

I expect canvassers targeting these voters, going door to door, will have two Plans. Plan A: Make the case against Obama and for Romney. Plan B: If Plan A doesn't work, urge them that it's their duty as Americans to vote.

Then let the chips fall where they may in the voting booth. Most of those chips will fall against Obama.

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posted by Ace at 03:37 PM

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