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June 04, 2012

PPP: "If D's Change Turnout to 08 Levels, They Win in WI."

Now my rebuttal.

Show me the indicator in early vote/absentee totals that turnout will approach 2008.

Total absentees for 08: >633,000
Total absentees for 10: >230,000
Total absentees for 12: 183,000. This includes all those bused-about early voters that were "storming the polls" for two solid weeks.

Of that total, 33,000, or just around 16%, were from Madison and Milwaukee. Identical to 2010. 84% of absentee/early in person votes reported thus far are from the rest of the state.

Total absentees from both cities hit about 35k after the statewide total # was estimated midday Friday, but no indicator theirs weren't matched by more conservative parts.

I fully expect Dane to turn out heavily to get rid of Walker. But even in Madison, total early votes: 16k. Total in 2008: 32k.

Meanwhile Republican areas are matching Dane County's intensity. Waukesha and Brookfield are reporting massive turnout, with early vote totals far, far exceeding 2010. So while they may hope for increased turnout in Milwaukee and Madison, Republicans are responding by amping up their own. The evidence is right there in my comparison of Brookfield's early votes with Milwaukee's. A city a fraction the size of the other shouldn't be turning in votes at four times the rate if the bigger city is really going to have massive turnout.

Few are buying the line of "just match 08" because it requires the Republicans to just give up and drop their numbers combined with massive turnout in Milwaukee city that has not shown up in the early indicators.

We will know in one more day how things shake out, but for now PPP's ditty about matching 08 turnout models to defeat Walker looks big on promise and short on verifiable results.

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