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May 30, 2012

FINAL MULAW WISCONSIN RECALL POLL: Walker 52% Barrett 45%

Final poll before the recall: 52-45

I will link once the results are posted, just pulling off MULaw's feed.

Last poll had Walker up by 6, 50-44, and Romney-Obama tied amongst likely voters. They also had a slightly wider lead for Walker (+8 ) amongst registered voters last time.

Current absentee totals (including early in-person) statewide is now 130,000 with just a few days to go. Over 230,000 were issued in 2010 and 633,000 in 2008. The GAB of Wisconsin is boosting estimated turnout to 2.6 to 2.8 million, based on existing data I think it will be a bit smaller than that but higher than 2010.

It is crunch time now for Republicans if they hope to save Walker. I still give him an edge, but it will take a sustained GOTV over the next 6 days to keep him on top. Democrats released yet another internal today, the first one now showing a tie between Barrett and Walker, 49% to 49%. They're saying the race is tightening, this poll refutes that showing Walker's lead growing.

UPDATES:
Lt Gov Kleefich leads Mitchell just 46%-41%

Walker lead Barrett by 6 months ago, that tightened as the race progressed, now right back to Walker leading.

"Perceptions on WI jobs have shifted to more people thinking we've gained jobs" per the poll.

BIG ONE-- Who is better at creating jobs? WALKER 50% Barrett 43% (So even some of Barrett's supporters don't think he's better at this)

Favorability:
Walker 51%/46% Barrett down to 41%/46%

FIRST time in MULAW polling Walker cracks the 50% ceiling.

Walker's Job?
Like what he has done 39%
Don't like what he has done 38%
Like what he did, just not how he did it 21%

Increases in employee share of cost for health and retirement: favor 75% oppose 22%


All of this, with Walker up 7, in a poll per MuLaw where the electorate is 4% MORE Democratic leaning than 2 weeks ago.

Are you ABSOLUTELY going to vote? 2 weeks ago: Republicans 91%. Now: 92%
Are you ABSOLUTELY going to vote? 2 weeks ago: Democrats 83%. Now? 77%.

Regional breakdown remains a massacre outside of Dane/Milwaukee. Barrett leads in Madison Metro by about 13 points, Milwaukee city an incredible 51 pts, but in the rest of the state being crushed. Loses GB/Appleton by 13, MilwaukeeMet by 23, rest of state by nearly same.

Don't screw this up. Don't celebrate or boast until we at #AOSHQDD call the race for Walker on Tuesday. Until that moment happens, don't let up.

And do not, under any circumstances, violate the golden rule about elections:


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posted by CAC at 01:15 PM

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