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May 27, 2012

Mythbusting the Left's "Polls Overstated Walker's Support in 2010" Talking Point

A now common idea spread around the leftosphere is that the polling for Walker, which puts him clearly ahead of Barrett, is overstating Walker's support, because it did last cycle.

Well, here is the Real Clear Politics recap from 2010:

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Now, at first it looks like the left is right: Walker averaged a lead three points higher than the margin he actually enjoyed. But that isn't the implication of the meme. The meme is that Walker's support is overstated in the polling, and that isn't true. The polls almost nailed it.

Per the polling average, Walker was projected to get 52% of the vote.
He won 52.3% of the vote. In fact of all the polling sampled only two polls out of over the last dozen overshot: by .7%. Barrett's share was underestimated, but not at Walker's expense. The margin of victory narrowed, but Walker's expected take actually grew.

Let's look at the current polling:
We Ask America: Walker 54%
DemGovAssociat: Walker 49%
Barrett's latest int: Walker 50%
Marquette Law: Walker 50%
PPP(LV)/Kos: Walker 50%
RasmussenPolls: Walker 50%
Reason-Rupe: Walker 50%
WPR/StNorbert Walker 50%
Polling Average: Walker 50.375%

If the same "overestimate" effect that happened in 2010 happened again, Walker still clears 50%, Barrett's share grows...and Walker would still win.

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posted by CAC at 04:51 PM

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