Karl Rove: A Romney Win Is As Simple As 3-2-1

Simple, yes. But like many simple things, it's also hard.

Read the piece, but I'll summarize some and quote. The "3" is Romney winning back three states which are usually part of the Republican electoral count but which flipped to Obama in 2008 -- Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia.

Virginia is the toughest, and Obama might actually win it again. He sees this one in contestation until election day. Although, it should be noted, Obama will have no choice but to fight for this one until election day -- without it, his Winning Map is very hard indeed.

Then Romney must pick up two traditional swing states, Ohio and Florida, that Obama won in 2008 (but not by a lot).

I think Ohio is the harder one here. It's trending Democratic. "Florida, Florida, Florida" might sort of be a lean Republican state at this point, which we have to count on winning if we're in the game at all.

With those states, and with the 10 votes that McCain/lean Republican states picked up in reapportionment, Romney is at 266 to Obama's 270. Edit: Oh, to get to this count, Romney would also have to pick up the Congressional District in Nebraska that went to Obama (while the other EV's went to McCain). But that's just one vote, and would only matter if Romney's winning state had exactly four EVs. Like New Hampshire, I think.

This is also the time, probably, to mention the 269-269 tie where it then goes to the House of Representatives is in play. Sort of.

Romney would need just one more state to take the election.

Here are Rove's thoughts on The One State That Wins the Election.

There are many paths open to him. One is the Neighborhood route. If the Boston resident and former Massachusetts governor captures next-door New Hampshire, its four electoral votes would take him to the magical 270 and the Oval Office.

But it's my gut that New Hampshire is a lost cause, unless this turns into a Reagan-like route. Which is possible, but in that case, we don't have to concern ourselves with New Hampshire. At that point, we'd be wondering about New Jersey.

There's also the Great Lakes route through Michigan (16 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (20) and Wisconsin (10). Of these, Michigan may be the toughest. But Mr. Obama's antipathy toward coal, added to problems with working-class whites and suburban independents, puts Pennsylvania in play...

And if Gov. Scott Walker survives his June 5 recall by a healthy margin, Wisconsin could also be up for grabs...

CAC is convincing me that Wisconsin is the election. Which puts even more pressure on the June 5 recall -- if we win that, we just might have set the stage to take a state Obama absolutely cannot afford to lose.

The Western route is Colorado (nine electoral votes), Nevada (six) or New Mexico (five)....

Here's what I'm thinking: Nevada, Nevada, Nevada.

With the nation's highest unemployment rate (11.7%), Nevadans remember Mr. Obama's notorious bashing of Las Vegas in 2010: "When times are tough, you tighten your belts. . . . You don't blow a bunch of cash in Vegas . . ."

And Rove doesn't say this, but wouldn't a lot of Mormons in Nevada turn out as ground troops for Romney? Damn, a lot of California and Utahn Mormons might bus themselves in for the last weekend before the election. Eager, clean-cut troops on the ground? That's a nice thing.

He goes on to mention one other possibility -- Iowa. I just get the sense that Iowa is a farmer/labor state and also is probably a lost cause except in an election when Iowa doesn't even matter, because now we're wondering about, I don't know, Oregon.

So, I don't know anything, but to me it's Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

posted by Ace at 02:56 PM

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