Intermarkets' Privacy Policy

Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!

Recent Entries
Absent Friends
Bandersnatch 2024
GnuBreed 2024
Captain Hate 2023
moon_over_vermont 2023
westminsterdogshow 2023
Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022
Dave In Texas 2022
Jesse in D.C. 2022
OregonMuse 2022
redc1c4 2021
Tami 2021
Chavez the Hugo 2020
Ibguy 2020
Rickl 2019
Joffen 2014
AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info:
maildrop62 at proton dot me
Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups

Romney: Obama (and Biden) Never Worked a Day In the Private Sector; Obama Just Doesn't Understand The Basics of Capitalism or a Free Economy | Main | Roseanne Barr Defends Larry Flynt's Degrading Photoshop
May 24, 2012

Karl Rove: A Romney Win Is As Simple As 3-2-1

Simple, yes. But like many simple things, it's also hard.

Read the piece, but I'll summarize some and quote. The "3" is Romney winning back three states which are usually part of the Republican electoral count but which flipped to Obama in 2008 -- Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia.

Virginia is the toughest, and Obama might actually win it again. He sees this one in contestation until election day. Although, it should be noted, Obama will have no choice but to fight for this one until election day -- without it, his Winning Map is very hard indeed.

Then Romney must pick up two traditional swing states, Ohio and Florida, that Obama won in 2008 (but not by a lot).

I think Ohio is the harder one here. It's trending Democratic. "Florida, Florida, Florida" might sort of be a lean Republican state at this point, which we have to count on winning if we're in the game at all.

With those states, and with the 10 votes that McCain/lean Republican states picked up in reapportionment, Romney is at 266 to Obama's 270. Edit: Oh, to get to this count, Romney would also have to pick up the Congressional District in Nebraska that went to Obama (while the other EV's went to McCain). But that's just one vote, and would only matter if Romney's winning state had exactly four EVs. Like New Hampshire, I think.

This is also the time, probably, to mention the 269-269 tie where it then goes to the House of Representatives is in play. Sort of.

Romney would need just one more state to take the election.

Here are Rove's thoughts on The One State That Wins the Election.

There are many paths open to him. One is the Neighborhood route. If the Boston resident and former Massachusetts governor captures next-door New Hampshire, its four electoral votes would take him to the magical 270 and the Oval Office.

But it's my gut that New Hampshire is a lost cause, unless this turns into a Reagan-like route. Which is possible, but in that case, we don't have to concern ourselves with New Hampshire. At that point, we'd be wondering about New Jersey.

There's also the Great Lakes route through Michigan (16 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (20) and Wisconsin (10). Of these, Michigan may be the toughest. But Mr. Obama's antipathy toward coal, added to problems with working-class whites and suburban independents, puts Pennsylvania in play...

And if Gov. Scott Walker survives his June 5 recall by a healthy margin, Wisconsin could also be up for grabs...

CAC is convincing me that Wisconsin is the election. Which puts even more pressure on the June 5 recall -- if we win that, we just might have set the stage to take a state Obama absolutely cannot afford to lose.

The Western route is Colorado (nine electoral votes), Nevada (six) or New Mexico (five)....

Here's what I'm thinking: Nevada, Nevada, Nevada.

With the nation's highest unemployment rate (11.7%), Nevadans remember Mr. Obama's notorious bashing of Las Vegas in 2010: "When times are tough, you tighten your belts. . . . You don't blow a bunch of cash in Vegas . . ."

And Rove doesn't say this, but wouldn't a lot of Mormons in Nevada turn out as ground troops for Romney? Damn, a lot of California and Utahn Mormons might bus themselves in for the last weekend before the election. Eager, clean-cut troops on the ground? That's a nice thing.

He goes on to mention one other possibility -- Iowa. I just get the sense that Iowa is a farmer/labor state and also is probably a lost cause except in an election when Iowa doesn't even matter, because now we're wondering about, I don't know, Oregon.

So, I don't know anything, but to me it's Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

digg this
posted by Ace at 02:56 PM

| Access Comments

Recent Comments
BifBewalski : "Hey, Jmel! I'm first loser.... Ahhhhhh, the s ..."

m: "400 ..."

Mike Hammer, etc., etc.: "I'm waiting for the DU comments before I reach any ..."

weft cut-loop[/i][/b] [/s]: "A Shmepublic ishf you can ... a ... anyway. ..."

Don Black: "you are welcome BB ..."

Eeyore: "A massive herd of elephants swim across a river. B ..."

Tonypete: "Good evening everyone. Read the content! ..."

Marcus T: "“ 372 Marcus , there was a poll yesterday sa ..."

AlaBAMA: "Why do wolves howl? Loneliness? Boredom? ..."

Oldcat: "She's not black! Her father was Jamaican and her m ..."

Don Black: "OK y'all realize this makes Kamala the de facto ..."

m: "381 Okay, bring on the Cafe. I need some cute anim ..."

Recent Entries

Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64