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May 10, 2012

WEEKLY AOSHQ WISCONSIN RECALL PROJECTION 5/10/2012

This week's edition reflects the new Rasmussen poll showing a 5 point lead for Scott Walker, and the incredibly high Republican turnout in Tuesday's primaries.

Last time, the Marquette Law poll had edged Walker downwards to a scant two point lead. With no Barrett bounce to be seen in post-primary polling, but obvious Republican intensity, Walker now enjoys just under a five point spread over Democrat Tom Barrett (big map ahead):


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Walker will need every single Republican vote just under four weeks from now to keep him on top, and so far it seems like they are ready and willing to be there for him.

Digging deeper in primary data, I found several counties previously listed as lean or likely Democrat voted more heavily for Walker than the combined Democrats' share, a substantial swing back from Klopp's take in 2011.

Public Policy Polling will be doing another poll for DailyKos in the state over the weekend, and allegedly a right-leaning firm will be doing so as well. We should see a plethora of data over these short four weeks, but as of today, Walker would win, and by just under the margin he did in 2010.

Search #AOSHQDD or just follow me directly on twitter for updates as the race unfolds.

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posted by CAC at 06:40 PM

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