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May 09, 2012

If Labor Force Participation Rate Were Same As It Was When Obama Took Office -- If Millions Hadn't Been Driven in Despair from Labor Market -- Unemployment Rate Would Be... 11.1%

This "adjustment" of the labor force seems to be a Pandora's box of mischief and misrepresentation.

It is only because Obama's employment record is so bad that (supposedly, the BLS says) millions have stopped seeking work altogether and so the nominal unemployment rate has fallen.

The labor force increases in a good economy as workers enter the market. It falls in a bad economy, as some resign themselves to semi-permanent unemployment.

Obama's been lucky to have a jobs environment so bad that millions flee it, keeping his unemployment rate fraction at just over 8%.

But what if the millions who fled the labor market were not discouraged and still sought work?

Then the rate is literally off the chart -- off the original chart published by the Obama administration, predicting a fall in unemployment due to the stimulus.

thegraph11.1.jpg

That's the great Geoff's old chart, of course, now plotted with the freshest numbers.

Thanks to Andy, or @theH2 on twitter.



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posted by Ace at 02:23 PM

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