Update: Gallup, Romney 47, Obama 44
Rasmussen: Romney 49, Obama 44 with Likely Voters

Gallup Moves... 47-44. Still registered voters.

Incidentally, Gallup has changed its track again -- now it's a seven day rolling average. So the weekend numbers are always included. On the other hand, there are no huge swings day-to-day.

...

Is this something?

The uptick for Romney comes as investor confidence has fallen six points in the wake of last week’s disappointing jobs report. Looking ahead five years, just 44% of Americans believe the nation’s economy will be stronger than it is today. That’s the lowest level of long-term optimism ever measured.

That said, Rasmussen has had Obama and Romney trading leads for 12 days, each taking the lead six times.

A USAToday/Gallup poll of swing states has the race tight.

Or does it?

The president and the former Massachusetts governor start their head-to-head contest essentially even among registered voters — Obama 47%, Romney 45% — in the dozen battleground states likely to determine the election's outcome. That's closer than the lead of 9 percentage points for Obama in the Swing States survey in late March.

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Among those surveyed, 60% say a President Romney would do a good or very good job handling the economy over the next four years; 52% say that of Obama. Even among the president's supporters, four in 10 predict Romney would do a good job. In a direct comparison, Romney edges Obama, 47%-44%, as the one who would do a better job.

And, in a Politico/GWU poll:

The former Massachusetts governor has opened up a 10-point lead, 48 percent to 38 percent, among independents in a poll conducted Sunday, April 29 through Thursday, May 3 and a 6-point lead among those who describe themselves as “extremely likely” to vote in November. Obama led Romney by 9 points overall in POLITICO’s February’s poll.

Pollsters can goose the Democratic fraction of the sample, but on voting day, is there any chance that Obama will turn out so many more Democrats than Republicans that he can overcome a 10 point gap with independents?

posted by Ace at 01:03 PM

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