Jimmy Carter: You Know, I'd Be Okay With a President Romney. He Seems Competent. | Main | If you have had a vasectomy, Andrew, this whole cover-up is no good:" Andrew Young Fillets John Edwards
April 25, 2012

APRIL PURPLE POLL: COLORADO TIED; SWING STATES OBAMA 48, ROMNEY 44 OVERALL

The April release is here, with a focus now on four states, Colorado, Florida, Virginia and Ohio. Romney beats Obama in Florida, ties in Colorado, trails by two in Virginia, trails in Ohio by 5. Obama's approval rating has gone up a point, but dropped amongst independent voters, who break for Romney 46-44.

Obama leads by 4 in the combined sample from New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, Virginia and North Carolina. New Mexico and Minnesota if you notice on the side bar aren't being tracked. I don't get why they are considered swings this cycle and state-by-state polling has confirmed my suspicions, but if Obama stumbles regionally I may begin tracking them.

In no swing region is Obama enjoying a positive approval rating. He carries the Swing South narrowly by a point and the Rust Belt and "Wild West" by two. With a lopsided margin in Ohio, I am a bit puzzled why he isn't carrying the Rust Belt by more. I mean, isn't there a large, poorly-drawn rectangle of a state right next to Ohio that is grouped into this region? A state with more voters than Ohio, and where just as many voters were polled? It couldn't possibly mean that Obama is losing the Keystone State. Or could it?

Not a bounce nationally for Romney, but his approval rating has swung twenty points from its nadir, and we are barely in week two of the general. The Colorado number, after months of PPP's ever-growing margins for Obama there, is a bit of a shock, but could reflect the willingness of Republicans to actually fight back- they have, after all, seen a boost in voter registration, enough to give them a 110k edge over the Democrats.

The underlying numbers for Americans in these states should worry the President. He has enjoyed a lead mainly because only 82% of the R vote here goes to Romney. Mitt locks up more of that, it will tie out or swing, depending on the independent vote. The economic outlook for those in these 12 states is dropping, and with the news out of Europe and hiring slowing here, that will probably continue to do so.

The twelve states polled per region:
Wild West: Colorado(TIED), Nevada, New Mexico (Obama leads by 2)
Swing South: Florida(R+2), North Carolina, Virgina(O+2) (Obama leads overall by 1)
Heartland: Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin (Obama leads overall by 6)
Rust Belt: Ohio(O leads by 5), Pennsylvania, New Hampshire (Obama leads overall by 2)






Recent Comments
Insomniac - Getting Microaggressed on the Daily, Yo!: "Another good one for the Food Thread. Anyone famil ..."

Sandra F.: "[i]That means they're really being hard if Jimmy c ..."

Mike Hammer, etc., etc.: "Are we now lactophilia intolerant? Posted by: buz ..."

Lost Shaker Assault: "I've been a chef, cook, and restaurant manager 35 ..."

Donna&&&&V sez: Sorry Tribe fans. Go Astros!: "Not entirely OT, here is a vid of some sane - and ..."

Cosmic Charlie: "Tina Weymouth was extraordinary ..."

buzzsaw90: "One word: lactophilia. And celebrity chefs. Pu ..."

filbert: "[i]"Diversity" by itself is valueless. A bucket of ..."

Insomniac - Getting Microaggressed on the Daily, Yo!: "508 Let's face it, diversity is weakness, straight ..."

colfax mingo: "Eromero, Not a poet, but not a bullshitter eith ..."

Mike Hammer, etc., etc.: "It starts with lactophilia, then, the pudding. ..."

publius, the Persistent Poperin Pear: " Another good one for the Food Thread. Anyone fa ..."

Recent Entries
Search


MuNuvians
Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat
Archives
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64