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April 25, 2012


The April release is here, with a focus now on four states, Colorado, Florida, Virginia and Ohio. Romney beats Obama in Florida, ties in Colorado, trails by two in Virginia, trails in Ohio by 5. Obama's approval rating has gone up a point, but dropped amongst independent voters, who break for Romney 46-44.

Obama leads by 4 in the combined sample from New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, Virginia and North Carolina. New Mexico and Minnesota if you notice on the side bar aren't being tracked. I don't get why they are considered swings this cycle and state-by-state polling has confirmed my suspicions, but if Obama stumbles regionally I may begin tracking them.

In no swing region is Obama enjoying a positive approval rating. He carries the Swing South narrowly by a point and the Rust Belt and "Wild West" by two. With a lopsided margin in Ohio, I am a bit puzzled why he isn't carrying the Rust Belt by more. I mean, isn't there a large, poorly-drawn rectangle of a state right next to Ohio that is grouped into this region? A state with more voters than Ohio, and where just as many voters were polled? It couldn't possibly mean that Obama is losing the Keystone State. Or could it?

Not a bounce nationally for Romney, but his approval rating has swung twenty points from its nadir, and we are barely in week two of the general. The Colorado number, after months of PPP's ever-growing margins for Obama there, is a bit of a shock, but could reflect the willingness of Republicans to actually fight back- they have, after all, seen a boost in voter registration, enough to give them a 110k edge over the Democrats.

The underlying numbers for Americans in these states should worry the President. He has enjoyed a lead mainly because only 82% of the R vote here goes to Romney. Mitt locks up more of that, it will tie out or swing, depending on the independent vote. The economic outlook for those in these 12 states is dropping, and with the news out of Europe and hiring slowing here, that will probably continue to do so.

The twelve states polled per region:
Wild West: Colorado(TIED), Nevada, New Mexico (Obama leads by 2)
Swing South: Florida(R+2), North Carolina, Virgina(O+2) (Obama leads overall by 1)
Heartland: Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin (Obama leads overall by 6)
Rust Belt: Ohio(O leads by 5), Pennsylvania, New Hampshire (Obama leads overall by 2)

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