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April 20, 2012

Gallup: President Obama on the Brink, Polls WORSE THAN CARTER

He is on the brink of losing, despite a small rebound.

If history and numbers mean anything, then Gallup has a sobering reminder to any on the left who think Obama is still the odds-on favorite:

The improvement in Obama's approval rating is likely tied to more positive economic news in recent months, especially concerning unemployment. Obama's approval rating reached as high as 50% in Gallup Daily tracking, for April 3-5, before settling back down into the mid- to high 40% range in recent days.

Although Obama's approval rating is improving, this is offset by the fact that it remains below the averages at the same point in time for presidents who were re-elected. All presidents since Eisenhower who were re-elected enjoyed average approval ratings above 50% during their 13th quarters in office.


Presidents have a small sliver of "I approve of the President's effort, but I want someone else" built into their approval ratings. So if Obama is at 45.9%, his solid vote share is stuck in the low forties. The closer the President approaches 50%, the less sleepless nights he will have, as the margin his opponent can snag drops.

President Obama has seen his numbers recover from the nadir of last Fall, but he is by no means a lock for re-election. He's in a statistical tie with Mitt Romney, who just emerged from a nasty primary and who still has a chunk of his party vote dragging their feet to fall behind him.

When polling firms are oversampling Democrats to pump polling results showing the President up 9, or even to show him up 3 or 4, you realize how small a base he actually has.

And how much of a real shot we actually have of kicking him out.






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