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April 19, 2012

PPP: 46% of those Polled Say They Voted for Obama in 2008; 46% Say McCain; 8% Say "I Don't Remember"

Hot little catch from @conartcritc (CAC): PPP's new poll shows Romney "catching up" to Obama. I put that in quotes because I think Romney's already ahead, but whatever, Democratic polling outfit. It's now, they say 49 Obama 46 Romney, but that's an improvement from February's Obama 49 Romney 42.

Even if a poll is biased, directionality matters. If it's biased in similar ways every time it's taken, the direction of poll numbers should be relevant, even if you can't quite trust the percentages.

Romney's seen a massive improvement in his personal favorability numbers over the last 2 months as GOP voters have unified around him. He's gone from a -28 spread (29/57) up to a -12 one (39/51). Most of the improvement has come with Republicans, going from 43/41 to 67/22. His numbers with Democrats are steady and he's seen a little bit of improvement with independents from 32/55 to 36/50, although he remains unpopular.

Yeah, you know, Romney's low favorability ratings are largely due to Republicans not liking him the way other nominees have been liked. But that is mostly temporary.

Anyway, on to #conartcritic's catch. From the full results...


There are two ways to read this. First, maybe this sample oversamples Republicans. The 2008 split was 54 (almost) to 47.

Okay, that's possible.

What @conartcritic suggests is that 8% of people who "don't remember"? Yeah, he says maybe they sure do remember, but don't want to admit it.

Buyer's remorse, maybe.

It's a famous factoid that when polled a decade after JFK's assassination, 75% or so of the public claims to have voted for him.

Which is silly; 1960 was a close election.

But people remember things how they wish they'd actually been.

I find it hard to believe that 8% of the public literally cannot remember who they voted for three and a half years ago.

This is all sort of "It seems to me" without numbers -- like the typical percent who says they can't remember. So, this is half-baked at this point.

Meanwhile, a poll says that Obama's advantage with the young is only... seven points?

And also meanwhile, are Obama's favorability numbers something to write home about? Nope!

While the media continues wishcasting about Obama's favorables being higher, they keep overlooking an important fact: Obama's unfavorables are higher too. And higher than his favorables, in fact.

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posted by Ace at 04:33 PM

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