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April 16, 2012

Third Time's a Charm: Romney Leads Obama in Gallup, 47-45

And this is registered voters. This does not screen for likely voters, or adjust for voter intensity.

Even incumbents who went on to lose -- Carter, Bush the Elder -- started out ahead of their challengers. Even if they did have weaker numbers supporting them.

The only other incumbent who began (and ended) by losing to his challenger? The hapless Gerald Ford.

On the Other Hand... Romney's the only challenger with an underwater favorable/unfavorable rating in a long, long time.

Thirty-five percent of Americans see Romney favorably, while 47 percent have an unfavorable opinion of the former Massachusetts governor. He's the first likely nominee to be underwater – seen more unfavorably than favorably – in ABC/Post polls in eight presidential primary seasons across the past 28 years.

That said, who cares.

I don't believe this is one of those elections where things like that come much into play. Some elections are had during relatively good times, where the public is choosing which man they'd rather have helm a sailing-smoothing ship.

This is not one of those times.

Plus, I don't expect those low favorability numbers to continue. No one will ever really love Romney, but most will end up with a "favorable" impression, if just a bit.

Few have truly strong opinions on Romney:

Romney's also got an enthusiasm gap: Just 12 percent see him "strongly" favorably, about half as many as see him strongly unfavorably. Intensity of sentiment on Obama is more even, tipping slightly to the positive – 30 percent strongly favorable, 26 percent strongly unfavorable.

That'll change a bit too. By November, 42% of the electorate -- the liberal vote -- will hate him.

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posted by Ace at 04:53 PM

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