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April 13, 2012

AoSHQ Presidential Projection 2012- April Edition

Electoral Map (Obama-Romney) - 3/13/13

Map courtesy of the great JohnE, as always.
With the primary a done deal, the general election is at hand. Romney enjoyed a gaffe from uber-secret mole Hilary Rosen, and his numbers against the President have improved in polling. President Obama enjoyed a growing margin over Romney in state-by-state and national polling, but much of that was data taken before the abrupt end of primary season on Tuesday. Candidates will typically enjoy a "unity bounce" as the primary resolves, and we may be seeing evidence of that this week. Currently, President Obama enjoys a 2 point deficit in a FoxNews poll and 4 point deficit per Rasmussen. Romney and Obama have see-sawed in our daily tracker, with Obama enjoying a small edge through Tuesday.

Some additional thoughts. Argue until you are blue in the face, Pennsylvania is the "hype state" for 2012. What's a hype state, you might ask? Think of political geekdom's obsession with Florida in 2000 or Ohio in 2004. It is a sizeable "swing" state deemed as the make-or-break for both sides.

The CAC rule on flipping the White House would hold here, as Romney is currently projected to flip Iowa (George W Bush failed to do in 2000, the last election in which Republicans won back the White House). Would be grand if it isn't the only one.

*poll update for lulz* YouGov has a new poll out showing Obama edging Romney 46-43, and suffering a 41/50 approval rating. You would think his leading Romney would be good news until you see the partisan breakdown of the poll: 46% Democrat, 35% Republican, 19% Independent. In a D+11 poll, Obama's approval rating is atrocious and he can only barely edge Romney. I wonder what that poll would look like with the PVI of 2004 or even 2008.


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posted by CAC at 05:38 PM

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