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February 16, 2012

Nate Silver: The Campaign Fundamentals Now Favor Obama; He's a 60 Percent Favorite to Win

Over Romney, the most generic Republican.

Mr. Obama, if measured on the same basis in 2008, would have come out as a 57. However, note that the model does not consider the incumbent’s ideology rating because concerns that voters have about it should already be priced into his approval rating, which the model does evaluate.

If G.D.P. grows at 2.5 percent from now through November — that is the current consensus forecast in the Wall Street Journal panel of economists — Mr. Obama would be a 60 percent favorite to win the popular vote against Mr. Romney, and a 77 percent favorite against Mr. Santorum.

The GDP is now projected to be 2.5% through November? That's news to me.

But there you go. Nate Silver assumes, as I do, that candidates closer to the center will do somewhat better in the general (hence the old "run to the center" maxim after the convention), but I know a lot of people insist this is false.

But... Now Gallup has him suddenly losing five points, down to 43 again?


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posted by Ace at 05:22 PM

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