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February 03, 2012

Transformational: Democrats Lose Net 17 States In Solid/Leaning Party Affiliation; Republicans Gain Seven

Gallup's conclusion:

Clearly, President Obama faces a much less favorable environment as he seeks a second term in office than he did when he was elected president.

Here's the movement. (Note that I said "net 17" in the headline because while Democrats lost 18 "solid" states, they gained one "lean" state.)

The battlefield will be the typical list of likely suspects...

Gallup notes that 2008 was a high-water mark for the Democratic Party, building upon 2006's already big Democratic year. So the shift back to the Republican Party isn't a realignment in favor of the Republican Party, so much as a realignment back to the relative parity that existed from the mid-90s through 2005 or so.

Even so, that's not good for Obama or the Democrats. Even with the most favorable partisan advantage in decades, and a financial crisis that could be pinned on the incumbent party, he still only managed a 53% vote share.

Now he's lost the partisan advantage and the current crisis (it is a crisis) sure looks like something that it was his job to fix.

Ed has more.


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posted by Ace at 02:21 PM

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