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February 02, 2012

Leon Panetta: "Strong Likelihood" Israel Will Strike Iran's Nukes In April, May, or June

You know who's not a fan?

Anyway. Here is Allah's excerpt from a Washington Post story.

Panetta believes there is strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June — before Iran enters what Israelis described as a “zone of immunity” to commence building a nuclear bomb. Very soon, the Israelis fear, the Iranians will have enough enriched uranium in deep underground facilities to make a weapon — and only the U.S. could then stop them militarily…

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak may have signaled the prospect of an Israeli attack soon when he asked last month to postpone a planned U.S.-Israel military exercise that would culminate in a live-fire phase in May. Barak apologized that Israel couldn’t devote the resources to the annual exercise this spring…

Israelis are said to believe that a military strike could be limited and contained. They would bomb the uranium-enrichment facility at Natanz and other targets; an attack on the buried enrichment facility at Qom would be harder from the air. Iranians would retaliate, but Israelis doubt the action would be an overwhelming barrage, with rockets from Hezbollah forces in Lebanon. One Israeli estimate is that the Jewish state might have to absorb 500 casualties…

“You stay to the side, and let us do it,” one Israel official is said to have advised the United States. A “short-war” scenario assumes five days or so of limited Israeli strikes, followed by a U.N.-brokered cease-fire. Israelis are said to recognize that damage to the nuclear program might be modest, requiring another strike in a few years.

But read Allah for other background. Stuff like:

I’m skeptical, but the degree of saber-rattling at the Herzliya Conference today was off the charts. First the IDF’s intel chief estimated that Iran has enough uranium to make four bombs, the first of which could be ready in a year.

A government controls the clock in these matters. Obama pretends there is no clock on Iran because he does not wish to do anything-- thus, he does not wish to raise the understanding of the public about the issue, which would tend to demand action.

So if Israel is telling the people about The Clock -- putting it in their mind that something must be done, and soon -- then it stands to reason that the most obvious reason for this is that they are preparing their public for such action.

Exit Question: What kind of a game is Panetta playing to announce the three month window in which an ostensible ally will be making a lifesaving attack?



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posted by Ace at 06:42 PM

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