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November 22, 2011

First Estimate of Q3 GDP Unexpectedly Cut from 2.5% to 2.0%

I kind of did not believe the 2.5% figure, nor the claims made off of it that the recession is clearly over, gee, we finally hit 2.5%! (2.5% is weak, anyway-- even 3.0% is weak for a recovery, but that's the minimum I would need to call this a recovery-range number.)

Almost every GDP estimate under Princess Obama has been revised downwards, sometimes by a lot.

But it wasn't 2.5%. That first number released is their first estimate, and I think they do at least two revisions to it.

The first revision puts it down at 2.0%. I'm thinking the next revision puts it even lower. Down into the One Point Shit range we've gotten used to.

The media won't mention these lower estimates, of course.

Bias to 3.0%: I forget where I saw this, but someone wrote that he believes the Bureau of Labor Statistic's methodology has a flaw that always pushes the GDP estimate into the 3.0% range, at least in their first estimate. They seem to have some belief that this is the natural state of things, and their first guesses tend to be goosed to be closer to 3.0% than the facts warrant.

Later revisions tend to show this initial bias towards 3.0% was a bit of delusional optimism.



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posted by Ace at 02:39 PM

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