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August 10, 2011

PPP: Democrats Have 7 Point Advantage In Generic Congressional Ballot; Blogger Opines They'd Win House If Elections Were Held Today

Unbelievable.

I suppose I do believe it, but it's unbelievable. The public claims they understand we cannot rack up more trillions in unpayable debt, but resists any effort to cut spending.

Boehner's now as unpopular as Pelosi, and there's so much more.

I think most national pundits continue to be missing the boat on how possible it is that Democrats will retake control of the House next year. We find Democrats with a 7 point lead on the generic Congressional ballot this week at 47-40. After getting demolished with independent voters last year, they now hold a slight 39-36 advantage with them.

...

This poll is certainly not an outlier. We have looked at the generic ballot 11 times going back to the beginning of March and Democrats have been ahead every single time, by an average margin of about 4 points. This 7 point advantage is the largest Democrats have had and if there was an election today I'm think that they'd take back the House....

There's little doubt that Democrats are winning the fallout of the debt debate. Approval for Congressional Republicans has now plunged to a 25/65 spread. That's a 21 point decline on the margin from when they started the year at 33/52. Last year independent voters were the driving factor behind the GOP retaking the House majority. Now they give it a 20/68 approval rating.

It's early- but it looks very plausible that we could be back to Speaker Pelosi 17 months from now.

One point S&P made in its downgrade statement was that they doubted that American politics was up to the task of fixing American finance.

I think they're right. And while this is a Democrat versus Republican issue, it's mostly an ignorance versus information issue.

The public is largely ignorant and prefers to remain so. They are confronted with two unpalatable, but necessary, choices -- A. high, stagnating, wealth-diminishing European socialist tax rates, or B. reductions in the welfare state, especially to middle class and higher income earners (and yes, many oldsters are quite rich), and they insist they want C., which is a continuation of ruinous levels of spending, but no taxes that touch their own wallets, oh, and also, they want the debt reduced.

I feel like the guy in Apollo 13 who insists that that the math doesn't add up regarding the drain they can put on the battered orbiter's weak batter: "I'm not making this up, you know."

The numbers are what they are, and reality is what it is.

As I've mentioned before, the media used to be all hot for economic rationality in this area -- reform of entitlements was a position held by 90% of the media that considered themselves informed policy wonks -- but they've thrown all that out the window now that Obama and Reid and Pelosi need them to forget what they've long known.

So there is no truth being told here, by the media that supposedly exists to tell hard truths and disabuse the public of pleasant fictions. The Democrats continue to resist any cuts, and claim to the public that this is sound policy, and the media refuses to note that this is simply a lie.

Because, for once, they have to be "neutral," you see.

Bullshit? Commenters point out PPP is skewed (I sort of just assumed that as a fact already; but even deducting five points, it would still show D's ahead), and that the RCP average has Republicans at +1 (albeit before this latest PPP poll is factored in).

Well, I agree PPP is skewed and that the real numbers are closer.

But here is my problem: Why are they this close?

Something like 70% of the public is either satisfied with the level of cuts imposed already or wants, they claim, further cuts in spending.

Don't tell me that people aren't supporting the GOP because the GOP isn't cutting deeply enough. That may be true, but answer me this:

If 70% of the public wants deeper cuts, how the hell do Congressional Democrats maintain a 45% level of support?

You see the problem? The public is lying to itself.

How long will they indulge in lies and ignorance?

That is my problem. That as a nation, a large number of us seem to be not only disconnected, and not only unserious, but addicted to indulgence in fantasy.


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posted by Ace at 12:37 PM

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