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July 27, 2011

Gallup: Perry Moves Into Second, In Statistical Tie With Romney

Perry's still at 15%, and Romney's barely ahead at 17%, while Palin is at 12% and Bachmann is at 11%. Rudy Giuliani, who I don't think is really running, is also at 11%.

We are still a long, long way from having anyone who really unites the party. But that's what the primary is for.

Obama is faring poorly in battleground states. He often loses to a man named Mitt Romney in hypothetical head-to-heads. Since Romney isn't my guy, I hope that isn't a "Romney thing" so much as a "nonthreatening Republican who seems to have a good bead on the economy thing."

In every reputable battleground state poll conducted over the past month, Obama’s support is weak. In most of them, he trails Republican front-runner Mitt Romney. For all the talk of a closely fought 2012 election, if Obama can’t turn around his fortunes in states such as Michigan and New Hampshire, next year’s presidential election could end up being a GOP landslide.

Take Ohio, a perennial battleground in which Obama has campaigned more than in any other state (outside of the D.C. metropolitan region). Fifty percent of Ohio voters now disapprove of his job performance, compared with 46 percent who approve, according to a Quinnipiac pollconducted from July 12-18.

Among Buckeye State independents, only 40 percent believe that Obama should be reelected, and 42 percent approve of his job performance. Against Romney, Obama leads 45 percent to 41 percent—well below the 50 percent comfort zone for an incumbent.

The news gets worse from there. In Michigan, a reliably Democratic state that Obama carried with 57 percent of the vote, an EPIC-MRA pollconducted July 9-11 finds him trailing Romney, 46 percent to 42 percent.

That Michigan poll might be specifically a Romney thing, because he has family history there, and Northerners generally prefer Northerners.

Right now I think it looks like Romney is our best bet for winning. Again, since he's not my guy, I hope that will change. But Romney is doing something right in attracting support.

It might just be that they've heard his name so much, and have seen him so much, they've grown comfortable with him. Or it could be something else.

One of the things I like about Perry is that he can run on Romney's apparently-successful platform of "Economic Fix-It Man." He's got a story to tell about job creation during a depression.


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posted by Ace at 12:30 PM

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