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July 11, 2011

Is Italy About To Go Down Too?

Great.

There have been some rumbles about Italy for a while. Italy's budget deficits are relatively modest compared to, say, Ireland, but their debt is about 120% of GDP. The government has passed a plan that will balance the budget by 2014, but as with most such plans, most of the cutting comes later, while the current cuts are small. This may well be sensible fiscal policy, given the current economic climate, but it is not reassuring to the markets. Mike Shedlock estimates that Italy needs to borrow about 356 billion ($500 billion) in 2011 to cover its deficit, and roll over outstanding debt. Their 10-years are now trading at something north of 5%. Most of the estimates I've seen say that a debt death spiral becomes likely when rates hit somewhere between 6-7%, because the debt service costs start blowing up the budget deficits.

It gets worse. As a chart of the interlinked banks of Europe, the US, and Japan shows there, if one domino goes, it starts knocking over other dominoes.


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posted by Ace at 06:32 PM

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