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July 08, 2011

Let Them Eat Hope: Pflouffle Claims People Don't Vote On The Unemployment Rate

There is spin.

And then there is Obama.


O Hai...!: David "The Pluff" Plouffle

“The average American does not view the economy through the prism of GDP or unemployment rates or even monthly jobs numbers,” Plouffe said, according to Bloomberg. “People won’t vote based on the unemployment rate, they’re going to vote based on: ‘How do I feel about my own situation? Do I believe the president makes decisions based on me and my family?’ ”

Remarkable. 220 years of American politically history is hereby repealed.

Because Obama is just so unprecedented.

The remarks will likely irritate Democrats who think Obama and his political team have taken their eye off jobs.

True as far as it goes -- but notice how the media prefers to cover dire economic news as if it's merely a political problem, to be solved with focus groups and speeches.

Suddenly the media isn't interested in feeling our pain, eh?

There’s some reason to think Obama could get a boost from the economy in the second half of the year, particularly given signs that the White House and congressional Republicans are moving closer to a deal that would lift the nation’s debt ceiling and cut trillions from annual deficits.

There’s no doubt such a deal would boost confidence in the economy and the political system. It could also boost hiring.

Also true. This could very well happen -- if Obama made a move towards correcting our unsustainable debt and thereby gave confidence to wealth creators.

But I don't think he will.

In a perverse way (and I hope no one is thinking like this), Republicans would profit by letting Obama be Obama.

...

The only real improvement in the labor market since the recession ended is with workers who have decided to sit out the slow economy and not look for a new job. That’s helped keep the unemployment rate low, Shierholz said.

Yup. Only the sheer awfulness of the jobs market, discouraging millions from even seeking work, keeps the number at the understated 9.2% level.

Worse and Worse: "No way to sugarcoat it."

This number was outside the standard deviation of expectations. I really can’t stress how ugly it is. There is no way to sugarcoat it. The economic policies used since October of 2008 are an abject and total failure. Not only that, but they have put the finances of the country in a precarious position that was not unforeseen.

Table A-15 in the BLS report is really all you need to look at. There are no silver linings in this report. U-6 jumped by .4%. 16.2% of all Americans that want to find a job can’t. Those are Americans that are actually seeking work. Thousands have gotten frustrated and simply stopped looking and aren’t included in those numbers.

That's the often-called "real unemployment rate," a measure of discouraged workers or workers working part-time for survival when they seek a full-time job.

Remember during Bush? You used to hear about U-6 a lot to cast some doubt on his primary unemployment figures of 5-6%. They liked to talk up how U-6 was a the horrific level of 9%. Maybe even 9.5%!!!

Table A-12 shows how bad it is. The mean time looking for work is 39.9 weeks, with a median duration of 22.5. Both numbers up from 39.7 and 22.0. There are only 52 weeks in a year, the average job hunt takes the better part of it. The labor force participation rate is at a 25 year low, 64.1%.

It is too early to say this but it we are coming soon to the point where it won't be too early:

Obama is done.

Pic via this WSJ article, noting Romney suggests that The Pluff should be added to the unemployment lines for this comment. Suggested by sooth3PO.

Ooops: Seems like Dave did this at 8:00.

Well, as I say, it's not a double-post, it's a recontextualization.



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posted by Ace at 01:56 PM

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