So, is the Twittering Weiner vulnerable in 2012?

The naïve answer: No way! They love him there!
He has carried this district by margins of 2-1 or better in every election except 2010- a high water mark for Republicans where he still beat GOP candidate Robert Turner by a 61-39 margin.

The more thorough answer? See below.

If Weiner receives any additional fallout, he may very well have a tough time getting re-elected.

In 2008, with Obama at the top of the ticket, and no real challenger, Weiner won 112,000 votes out of 120,000 votes cast.
In 2010, facing an underfunded challenger in a GOP wave year, his share crashed to 67,000 out of 110,000 votes cast.

More worrisome perhaps is that having Obama at the top won't neutralize his current problems. President Obama himself only carried this district by a 55-44 margin- worse than Kerry or Gore.

What makes the district potentially competitive?
From Wikipedia:

"The district, like almost all districts encompassing New York City, is Democratic, although significantly less so than the districts surrounding it. In order to accommodate surrounding districts with majority black or Hispanic populations (the 6th, 10th, 11th and 12th), it has been drawn to consist primarily of middle-class white neighborhoods (the district as a whole is 71% Caucasian, 14.5% Asian, 13.6% Hispanic and 4% African-American). The district includes large Jewish, Italian, and Irish populations."

The district is NYC's 2nd most conservative at just D+5 PVI. Its most conservative district, Staten Island's CD13, went red in 2010.

It can be said, looking at the Presidential race results in this district, that it has become more conservative over the last decade. Obama's 55% share is 12 points lower than Gore's in 2000.

So if Robert Turner, who lost by 20 points in 2010, ran a well-funded campaign against a broken Weiner in 2012, New York City may have its 2nd Republican flip in 2 years. If said Republican had a little ideological give, it could even stay red.

Serious scandals can destroy congressmen, even in heavily, heavily slanted districts.
Just ask Dan Rostenkowski. His D+19 district advantage couldn't save him in 1994.

posted by CAC at 06:07 PM

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